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Using the new products margin to predict the industry-level impact of trade reform

  • Timothy J. Kehoe
  • Jack Rossbach
  • Kim J. Ruhl

This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) that much of the growth in trade after trade liberalization is in products that are traded very little or not at all, we predict that industries with a higher share of exports generated by least traded products will experience more growth. Using our methodology, we develop predictions for industry-level changes in trade for the United States and Korea following the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). As a test for our methodology, we show that it performs significantly better than the applied general equilibrium models originally used for the policy evaluation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 492.

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Date of creation: 2013
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Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:492
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  1. Simonovska, Ina; Waugh, Michael E., 2010. "The Elasticity of Trade: Estimates & Evidence," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 13, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  2. Baier, Scott L. & Bergstrand, Jeffrey H., 2007. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 72-95, March.
  3. David Cox & Richard G. Harris, 1992. "North American Free Trade and its Implications for Canada: Results from a CGE Model of North American Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 31-44, 01.
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  5. Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2007. "Economic Effects of a Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement," Working Papers 557, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  6. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers 2013-02, Sciences Po Departement of Economics.
  7. Ozlem Yaylaci & Serge Shikher, 2014. "What Would Korea-US Free Trade Agreement Bring?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 161-182, March.
  8. Ina Simonovska & Michael E. Waugh, 2011. "The Elasticity of Trade: Estimates and Evidence," NBER Working Papers 16796, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & J.F. Francois & L. Rivera, 2008. "Economic perspectives for Central America after CAFTA; a GTAP-based analysis," CPB Discussion Paper 99, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  10. Drusilla K. Brown & Alan V. Deardorff & Robert M. Stern, 1992. "A North American Free Trade Agreement: Analytical Issues and a Computational Assessment," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 11-30, 01.
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  12. David Cox & Richard Harris, 1983. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada," Working Papers 523, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  13. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2013. "How Important Is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 358 - 392.
  14. Head, Keith & Mayer, Thierry & Ries, John, 2010. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 1-14, May.
  15. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2005. "Computational Analysis of the US FTAs with Central America, Australia and Morocco," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(10), pages 1441-1490, October.
  16. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000525, David K. Levine.
  17. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
  18. Costas Arkolakis, 2008. "Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade," NBER Working Papers 14214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Markus Lips & Peter Rieder, 2005. "Abolition of Raw Milk Quota in the European Union: A CGE Analysis at the Member Country Level," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 1-17.
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