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Using the new products margin to predict the industry-level impact of trade reform

  • Timothy J. Kehoe
  • Jack Rossbach
  • Kim J. Ruhl

This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) that much of the growth in trade after trade liberalization is in products that are traded very little or not at all, we predict that industries with a higher share of exports generated by least traded products will experience more growth. Using our methodology, we develop predictions for industry-level changes in trade for the United States and Korea following the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). As a test for our methodology, we show that it performs significantly better than the applied general equilibrium models originally used for the policy evaluation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis in its series Staff Report with number 492.

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Date of creation: 2013
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedmsr:492
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  1. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer & John Ries, 2008. "The erosion of colonial trade linkages after independence," Working Papers hal-01066116, HAL.
  2. Keith Head & Thierry Mayer, 2013. "Gravity Equations: Workhorse, Toolkit, and Cookbook," Sciences Po Economics Discussion Papers 2013-02, Sciences Po Departement of Economics.
  3. Scott L. Baier & Jeffrey H. Bergstrand, 2005. "Do free trade agreements actually increase members’ international trade?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper No. 2005-03, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  4. David Cox & Richard G. Harris, 1992. "North American Free Trade and its Implications for Canada: Results from a CGE Model of North American Trade," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 31-44, 01.
  5. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2009. "How important is the new goods margin in international trade?," Staff Report 324, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  6. Cox, David & Harris, Richard, 1985. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 115-45, February.
  7. Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000525, David K. Levine.
  8. Brown, D.K. & Deardorff, A.V. & Stern, R.M., 1991. "A North American Free Trade Agreement: Analytical Issues and A Computational Assessment," Working Papers 289, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  9. Michael Waugh & Ina Simonovska, 2010. "The Elasticity of Trade: Estimates and Evidence," 2010 Meeting Papers 637, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  10. Costas Arkolakis, 2008. "Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade," NBER Working Papers 14214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2005. "Computational Analysis of the U.S FTAs with Central America, Australia, And Morocco," Working Papers 527, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
  12. Markus Lips & Peter Rieder, 2005. "Abolition of Raw Milk Quota in the European Union: A CGE Analysis at the Member Country Level," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 1-17.
  13. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
  14. Horacio E. Sobarzo, 1992. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Gains from Trade for the Mexican Economy of a North American Free Trade Agreement," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 15(1), pages 83-100, 01.
  15. Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & J.F. Francois & L. Rivera, 2008. "Economic perspectives for Central America after CAFTA; a GTAP-based analysis," CPB Discussion Paper 99, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
  16. Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum, 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1741-1779, September.
  17. Ozlem Yaylaci & Serge Shikher, 2014. "What Would Korea-US Free Trade Agreement Bring?," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 161-182, March.
  18. Simonovska, Ina; Waugh, Michael E., 2010. "The Elasticity of Trade: Estimates & Evidence," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 13, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  19. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521825252 is not listed on IDEAS
  20. Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2007. "Economic Effects of a Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement," Working Papers 557, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
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