Using the new products margin to predict the industry-level impact of trade reform
This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (3-digit ISIC) based on the pre-liberalization distribution of exports by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2013) that much of the growth in trade after trade liberalization is in products that are traded very little or not at all, we predict that industries with a higher share of exports generated by least traded products will experience more growth. Using our methodology, we develop predictions for industry-level changes in trade for the United States and Korea following the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). As a test for our methodology, we show that it performs significantly better than the applied general equilibrium models originally used for the policy evaluation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA).
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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Costas Arkolakis, 2010.
"Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1151 - 1199.
- Costas Arkolakis, 2008. "Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade," NBER Working Papers 14214, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Cox, David & Harris, Richard, 1985.
"Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 115-45, February.
- David Cox & Richard Harris, 1983. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada," Working Papers 523, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2007. "Economic Effects of a Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement," Working Papers 557, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & J.F. Francois & L. Rivera, 2008. "Economic perspectives for Central America after CAFTA; a GTAP-based analysis," CPB Discussion Paper 99, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003.
"An evaluation of the performance of applied general equilibrium models of the impact of NAFTA,"
320, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA," Levine's Working Paper Archive 506439000000000525, David K. Levine.
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