Using the New Products Margin to Predict the Sectoral Impact of Trade Reform
This paper develops a methodology for predicting the impact of trade liberalization on exports by industry (2-digit ISIC) based on the distribution of exports before the reform by product (5-digit SITC). Using the results of Kehoe and Ruhl (2009) that much of the growth in trade after trade liberalization is in products that are traded very little or not at all, we characterize industries in Canada, Mexico, and the United States by the fractions of exports in 1988 accounted for by these least traded products. We show that a prediction of trade growth 1988â€“2007 by industry based on these data performs significantly better than the leading applied general models that were originally used for the policy evaluation of North American Free Trade Agreement.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.EconomicDynamics.org/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Arnaud Costinot & Andres Rodriguez-Clare & Costas Arkolakis, 2010.
"New Trade Models, Same Old Gains?,"
2010 Meeting Papers
433, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Hugo Rojas-Romagosa & J.F. Francois & L. Rivera, 2008. "Economic perspectives for Central America after CAFTA; a GTAP-based analysis," CPB Discussion Paper 99, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2006.
"How Important is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?,"
2006 Meeting Papers
733, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2013. "How Important Is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 358 - 392.
- Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2009. "How important is the new goods margin in international trade?," Staff Report 324, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Sam Kortum & John Romalis & Brent Neiman & Jonathan Eaton, 2010.
"Trade and the Global Recession,"
2010 Meeting Papers
1340, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Jonathan Eaton & Sam Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2010. "Trade and the global recession," Working Paper Research 196, National Bank of Belgium.
- Samuel S. Kortum & Jonathan Eaton & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2010. "Trade and the Global Recession," DEGIT Conference Papers c015_002, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Eaton, Jonathan & Kortum, Sam & Neiman, Brent & Romalis, John, 2013. "Trade and the Global Recession," Working Papers 2013-21, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Jonathan Eaton & Samuel Kortum & Brent Neiman & John Romalis, 2011. "Trade and the Global Recession," NBER Working Papers 16666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Cox & Richard Harris, 1983.
"Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada,"
523, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Cox, David & Harris, Richard, 1985. "Trade Liberalization and Industrial Organization: Some Estimates for Canada," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(1), pages 115-45, February.
- Kehoe,Timothy J. & Srinivasan,T. N. & Whalley,John (ed.), 2005. "Frontiers in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521825252.
- Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003.
"An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
506439000000000525, David K. Levine.
- Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An evaluation of the performance of applied general equilibrium models of the impact of NAFTA," Staff Report 320, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2007. "Economic Effects of a Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement," Working Papers 557, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:red:sed013:1227. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christian Zimmermann)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.