How important is the new goods margin in international trade?
We propose a methodology for studying changes in bilateral trade due to countries exporting goods that they did not export previously or exported only in small quantities. Applying this methodology to country pairs that undergo trade liberalization and to pairs in which one of the countries undergoes significant structural transformation, we find large increases on this extensive—or new goods—margin. Looking at country pairs with no major trade policy change or structural change, however, we find little or no increases on the extensive margin. Studying time series on trade by commodity, we find that data from before 1988 and 1989, when most major trading countries moved to the Harmonized System, are not compatible with data from afterward.
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- Paul M. Romer, 1993.
"New Goods, Old Theory, and the Welfare Costs of Trade Restrictions,"
NBER Working Papers
4452, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Romer, Paul, 1994. "New goods, old theory, and the welfare costs of trade restrictions," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 5-38, February.
- Aart Kraay & Jaume Ventura, 2002.
"Trade Integration and Risk Sharing,"
NBER Working Papers
8804, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- R. Dornbusch & S. Fischer & P. A. Samuelson, 1976.
"Comparative Advantage, Trade and Payments in a Ricardian Model With a Continuum of Goods,"
178, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-39, December.
- Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003.
"An Evaluation of the Performance of Applied General Equilibrium Models of the Impact of NAFTA,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
506439000000000525, David K. Levine.
- Timothy J. Kehoe, 2003. "An evaluation of the performance of applied general equilibrium models of the impact of NAFTA," Staff Report 320, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
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