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Trade integration and risk sharing

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  • Kraay, Aart
  • Ventura, Jaume

Abstract

What are the effects of increased trade in goods and services on the trade balance? We study the effects of reducing transport costs in a Ricardian model with complete asset markets. Trade integration has three effects on the structure of the economy: a reduction in the home bias in consumption, an increase in the degree of international competition in goods markets, and a reduction in real exchange rate volatility. The reduction in the home bias increases the volatility of the trade balance regardless of the source of shocks. Except for the case where supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances, (i) the increase in international competition also increases the volatility of the trade balance; and (ii) the reduction in real exchange rate volatility increases the volatility of the trade balance if risk aversion is low but lowers it if risk aversion is high. The opposite applies when supply shocks lead to counter-cyclical trade balances. We calibrate the model to U.S. data and provide a quantitative assessment of the effects of increased trade in services on the trade balance.
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Suggested Citation

  • Kraay, Aart & Ventura, Jaume, 2002. "Trade integration and risk sharing," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1023-1048, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:46:y:2002:i:6:p:1023-1048
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cole, Harold L. & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Commodity trade and international risk sharing : How much do financial markets matter?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-24, August.
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    3. Barro, Robert J & Lee, Jong-Wha, 2001. "International Data on Educational Attainment: Updates and Implications," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, pages 541-563.
    4. Harrigan, James, 1999. "Estimation of cross-country differences in industry production functions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 267-293, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Attilio Gardini & Giuseppe Cavaliere & Luca Fanelli, 2005. "Risk Sharing, avversione al rischio e stabilizzazione delle economie regionali in Italia," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 95(3), pages 219-266, May-June.
    2. Christian Broda, 2002. "Uncertainty, exchange rate regimes, and national price levels," Staff Reports 151, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    3. Mihailov, Alexander, 2003. "When and How Much Does a Peg Increase Trade? The Role of Trade Costs and Import Demand Elasticity under Monetary Uncertainty," Economics Discussion Papers 8866, University of Essex, Department of Economics.
    4. Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2005. "International Trade and Macroeconomic Dynamics with Heterogeneous Firms," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 120(3), pages 865-915.
    5. Cacciatore, Matteo, 2014. "International trade and macroeconomic dynamics with labor market frictions," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 17-30.
    6. Naknoi, Kanda, 2008. "Real exchange rate fluctuations, endogenous tradability and exchange rate regimes," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 645-663, April.
    7. Feng Dai & Songtao Wu & Ling Liang & Zifu Qin, 2016. "Bilateral Trade under Environmental Pressure: Balanced Growth," Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 209-231, June.
    8. Broda, Christian, 2006. "Exchange rate regimes and national price levels," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 52-81, September.
    9. Alejandro Cuñat & Christian Fons-Rosen, 2013. "Relative Factor Endowments And International Portfolio Choice," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 166-200, February.
    10. Mathias Hoffmann, 2008. "The Lack of International Consumption Risk Sharing: Can Inflation Differentials and Trading Costs Help Explain the Puzzle?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 183-201, April.
    11. Timothy J. Kehoe & Kim J. Ruhl, 2013. "How Important Is the New Goods Margin in International Trade?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(2), pages 358-392.
    12. Christian Friedrich, 2015. "Does Financial Integration Increase Welfare? Evidence from International Household-Level Data," Staff Working Papers 15-4, Bank of Canada.
    13. Alexander Mihailov, 2004. "Effects of the exchange-rate regime on trade: the role of price setting," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2003 66, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration

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