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Computational Analysis of the US FTAs with Central America, Australia and Morocco

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  • Drusilla K. Brown
  • Kozo Kiyota
  • Robert M. Stern

Abstract

We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the US bilateral FTAs negotiated with Central America, Australia and Morocco. The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates imperfect competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including monopolistic competition, increasing returns and product variety. The modelling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non‐trade aspects of the FTAs are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the benefits of bilateral FTAs for the United States and partner countries are rather small in both absolute and relative terms, and that far greater benefits could be realised if the United States and its FTA partners adopted unilateral free trade and especially if multilateral free trade was adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system.

Suggested Citation

  • Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2005. "Computational Analysis of the US FTAs with Central America, Australia and Morocco," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 28(10), pages 1441-1490, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:worlde:v:28:y:2005:i:10:p:1441-1490
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00743.x
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    1. Hertel, Thomas W. & Will Martin, 1999. "Would Developing Countries Gain from Inclusion of Manufactures in the WTO Negotiations?," GTAP Working Papers 397, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    2. World Bank, 2003. "World Development Indicators 2003," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 13920, December.
    3. Yongzheng Yang & Mr. Alvin Hilaire, 2003. "The United States and the New Regionalism/ Bilateralism," IMF Working Papers 2003/206, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Hertel, Thomas W. & Will Martin, 1999. "Would Developing Countries Gain from Inclusion of Manufactures in the WTO Negotiations?," GTAP Working Papers 397, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
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    1. Brown, Drusilla K. & Kiyota, Kozo & Stern, Robert M., 2005. "Computational analysis of the Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA)," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 153-185, August.
    2. Bussolo, Maurizio & Niimi, Yoko, 2009. "Do Regional Trade Pacts Benefit the Poor? An Illustration from Dominican Republic--Central American Free Trade Agreement in Nicaragua," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 146-160, January.
    3. Balistreri, Edward J. & Markusen, James R., 2009. "Sub-national differentiation and the role of the firm in optimal international pricing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 47-62, January.
    4. Huang, Qingbo & Zhang, Xiaohan & Li, Yan, 2023. "Study on the economic effects of China and ASEAN countries from the New International Land-Sea Trade Corridor," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 123-135.
    5. 武田 史郎, 2007. "貿易政策を対象とした応用一般均衡分析," Discussion Papers (Japanese) 07010, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    6. Richard G. Harris & Peter E. Robertson, 2007. "Dynamic Gains and Market Access Insurance: Another look at the AUSFTA," Discussion Papers 2007-23, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    7. Drusilla K. Brown & Kozo Kiyota & Robert M. Stern, 2006. "Computational Analysis of the Menu of US‐Japan Trade Policies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(6), pages 805-855, June.
    8. Malki, Mostafa & Thompson, Henry, 2014. "Morocco and the US Free Trade Agreement: A specific factors model with unemployment and energy imports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 269-274.
    9. Richard G. Harris & Peter E. Robertson, 2009. "Dynamic Gains and Market Access Insurance: Another Look at the Australia–US Free Trade Agreement," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 42(4), pages 435-452, December.
    10. Kehoe, Timothy J. & Rossbach, Jack & Ruhl, Kim J., 2015. "Using the new products margin to predict the industry-level impact of trade reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 289-297.
    11. Walkenhorst, Peter & Malouche, Mariem, 2006. "Trade Policy and Export Performance in Morocco," MPRA Paper 23119, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Mahinda Siriwardana, 2006. "Australia's Involvement in Free Trade Agreements: An Economic Evaluation," Global Economic Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(1), pages 3-20.
    13. Siriwardana, Mahinda, 2007. "The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: An economic evaluation," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 117-133, February.
    14. Estrades, Carmen & Traore, Fousseini & Djiofack Zebaze, Calvin & Cardozo, Adriana, 2015. "DR-CAFTA Agreement and liberalization of trade in services: Evidence from Costa Rica," Conference papers 332581, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration

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