Le recours aux MEGC pour l’analyse de l’accord de partenariat économique entre l’union européenne et les pays ACP : une revue de la littérature
The implementation of the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) between the European-Union and the ACP (Africa-Caribbean-Pacific) countries requires the progressive tariff dismantling against the products originating from the European Union. Many African countries are worried about this agreement and ask for a closer examination on socio-economic, sectoral and regional impacts. The debate is all the more difficult because the GDP growth rate evolution is not a sufficient indicator to draw significant conclusions. Indeed, the commercial liberalization is a phenomenon of a macroeconomic nature, but it also influences the determinants of poverty which are of a microeconomic nature. In other words, trade liberalization could foster GDP growth, but could also increase inequalities between social categories with most underprivileged ones becoming increasingly poor. In order to analyze the redistribution effects of economic policies in a detailed manner, it is necessary to rely on consistent data and tools. CGE models are widely used to analyze micro-economic impacts of macro-economic policies, but they are built upon a specific database called a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). This matrix would need to present a fine decomposition of households categories if, for instance, political deciders would consider a priority to assess the impact of EPA on poverty. Today, the Social Accounting Matrix is often simply seen as the data base supporting a CGE model and the economic modeler is expected to build this matrix while he is elaborating the model. However, a Social Accounting Matrix should also be seen as an essential helping decision tool being constantly monitored by political deciders. Monitoring the evolution of the SAM would significantly improve their understanding of the socio-economic consequences of government policies, such as the Economic Partnership Agreement. The absence in most ACP countries of a Social Accounting Matrix being updated yearly by the national statistical office may therefore reflect an underestimation of national authorities on the importance of this tool in decision-support.
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