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Some Simple Analytics of the Trade and Welfare Effects of Economic Partnership Agreements

Author

Listed:
  • Chris Milner
  • Oliver Morrissey
  • Andrew McKay

Abstract

The Cotonou Agreement, successor to the Lomé Convention, offers African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries preferential access to EU markets by establishing economic partnership agreements (EPAs) between the EU and blocks of ACP countries that are members of regional trading arrangements. ACP countries entering such arrangements could retain preferential access to the EU market, but on a reciprocal basis. This paper presents a relatively simple method (with moderate data requirements) to measure the likely short-run welfare consequences, static effects on trade flows and tariff revenue, of such an arrangement for ACP countries. The partial equilibrium method is illustrated for the case of the East African Cooperation (Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda). The analysis suggests that the welfare effects (excluding revenue effects) from a reciprocal agreement with the EU will be small, whether positive or negative, but ACP countries will experience short-run adjustment costs, especially in the form of revenue losses. Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Chris Milner & Oliver Morrissey & Andrew McKay, 2005. "Some Simple Analytics of the Trade and Welfare Effects of Economic Partnership Agreements," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies (CSAE), vol. 14(3), pages 327-358, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:jafrec:v:14:y:2005:i:3:p:327-358
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    Cited by:

    1. Mphumuzi A. Sukati, 2012. "The SADC region and EPA/EBAI - trade balance analysis," International Journal of Sustainable Economy, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 4(2), pages 136-154.
    2. Oliver Morrissey, & Evious Zgovu, "undated". "The Impact of Economic Partnership Agreements on ACP Agriculture Imports and Welfare," Discussion Papers 07/09, University of Nottingham, CREDIT.
    3. Brenton, Paul & Saborowski, Christian & Staritz, Cornelia & von Uexkull, Erik, 2009. "Assessing the adjustment implications of trade policy changes using TRIST (tariff reform impact simulation tool)," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5045, The World Bank.
    4. Ole Boysen & Alan Matthews, 2017. "Will Economic Partnership Agreements Increase Poverty? The Case of Uganda," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(2), pages 353-382, May.
    5. Rehab O. M. Osman, 2015. "SADC Trade with the European Union from a Preferential to a Reciprocal Modality," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(1), pages 23-40, March.
    6. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
    7. Axel Borrmann & Matthias Busse & Manuel De La Rocha, 2007. "Consequences of Economic Partnership Agreements between East and Southern African Countries and the EU for Inter- and Intra-regional Integration," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(2), pages 233-253.
    8. Nwali, Collins Sunday & Arene, Chukwuemeka John, 0. "Effects Of Economic Partnership Agreements On Agricultural Trade Between Nigeria And The Eu," International Journal of Food and Agricultural Economics (IJFAEC), Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat University, Department of Economics and Finance, vol. 3.
    9. Sukati, Mphumuzi A, 2010. "The Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) and the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) Region- The Case for South Africa," MPRA Paper 25103, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Sadni Jallab, Mustapha & Abdelmalki, Lahsen, 2007. "The Free Trade Agreement Between the United States and Morocco: The Importance of a Gradual and Assymetric Agreement," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 22, pages 852-887.
    11. Souleymane COULIBALY, 2006. "Evaluating the Trade and Welfare Effects of Developing RTAs," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 06.03, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
    12. Fontagne, Lionel & Laborde, David & Mitaritonna, Cristina, 2008. "An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions," 2008 International Congress, August 26-29, 2008, Ghent, Belgium 44194, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    13. Ben Hammouda, Hakim & Karingi, Stephen & Ouedraogo, Ben Idrissa & Oulmane, Nassim & Sadni Jallab, Mustapha, 2006. "Assessing the Consequences of the Economic Partnership Agreement on the Ethiopian Economy," MPRA Paper 13361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Karingi, Stephen & Oulmane, Nassim & Lang, Rémi & Sadni Jallab, Mustapha & Perez, Romain, 2005. "Assessment of the impact of the Economic Partnership Agreement between the ECOWAS countries and the European Union," MPRA Paper 13292, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Lionel Fontagné & David Laborde & Cristina Mitaritonna, 2009. "An Impact Study of the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) in the Six ACP Regions," Working Papers halshs-00967434, HAL.
    16. Karingi, Stephen & Perez, Romain & Oulmane, Nassim & Lang, Rémi & Sadni Jallab, Mustapha, 2006. "Assessment of the Impact of the Economic Partnership Agreement between the COMESA countries and the European Union," MPRA Paper 13294, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Chris Milner & Oliver Morrissey & Evious Zgovu, 2011. "Designing Economic Partnership Agreements To Promote Intra‐Regional Trade In Acp Countries," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 79(4), pages 376-391, December.

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