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Grain Price Spikes and Beggar-thy-Neighbor Policy Responses: A Global Economywide Analysis

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  • Hans G. Jensen
  • Kym Anderson

Abstract

When prices spike in international grain markets, national governments often reduce the extent to which that spike affects their domestic food markets. Those actions exacerbate the price spike and international welfare transfer associated with that terms of trade change. Several recent analyses have assessed the extent to which those policies contributed to the 2006–08 international price rises but only by focusing on one commodity or by using a back-of-the envelope (BOTE) method. The present more comprehensive analysis uses a global, economy-wide model that is able to take account of the interactions between markets for farm products that are closely related in production and/or consumption and able to estimate the impacts of those insulating policies on grain prices and on the grain trade and economic welfare of the world's various countries. Our results support the conclusion from earlier studies that there is a need for stronger WTO disciplines on export restrictions.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans G. Jensen & Kym Anderson, 2017. "Grain Price Spikes and Beggar-thy-Neighbor Policy Responses: A Global Economywide Analysis," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 31(1), pages 158-175.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:wbecrv:v:31:y:2017:i:1:p:158-175.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/wber/lhv047
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    Cited by:

    1. Huw Lloyd-Ellis & Ardyn Nordstrom, 2021. "Trade, poverty and food security: A survey of recent research and its implications for East Africa," Working Paper 1460, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    2. Estrades, Carmen & Flores, Manuel & Lezama, Guillermo, "undated". "The Role of Export Restrictions in Agricultural Trade," Commissioned Papers 256421, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    3. Consoli, Sarah & Egas Yerovi, Juan José & Machiorlatti, Matteo & Morales Opazo, Cristian, 2023. "Real-time monitoring of food price policy interventions during the first two years of COVID-19," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    4. Kym Anderson, 2021. "Food policy in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Departmental Working Papers 2021-25, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    5. Shikha Jha & Kensuke Kubo & Bharat Ramaswami, 2016. "International Trade and Risk Sharing in the Global Rice Market: The Impact of Foreign and Domestic Supply Shocks," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 33(1), pages 162-182, March.
    6. Nes, Kjersti & Schaefer, K. Aleks & Yu, Jisang, 2025. "Economic impacts of the Indian ban on non-Basmati rice exports," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    7. Thennakoon, Jayanthi & Anderson, Kym, 2015. "Could the proposed WTO Special Safeguard Mechanism protect farmers from low international prices?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-113.
    8. Kym Anderson, 2023. "Agriculture's globalization: Endowments, technologies, tastes and policies," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1314-1352, September.
    9. Kym Anderson, 2022. "Agriculture in a more uncertain global trade environment," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 53(4), pages 563-579, July.
    10. Martin, Will & Minot, Nicholas, 2022. "The impacts of price insulation on world wheat markets during the 2022 food price crisis," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(04), January.
    11. Simon J. Evenett, 2020. "Sicken thy neighbour: The initial trade policy response to COVID‐19," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 828-839, April.
    12. Anderson, Kym & Thennakoon, Jayanthi, 2015. "Food Prices Spikes and Poor, Small Economies: What Role for Trade Policies," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(01), pages 1-16, March.
    13. Anderson, Kym, 2022. "Trade-related food policies in a more volatile climate and trade environment," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    14. Elleby, Christian & Hansen, Henrik & Yu, Wusheng, 2015. "Domestic Price and Welfare Effects of the 2007-11 Indian Grain Export Restrictions," 2015 AAEA & WAEA Joint Annual Meeting, July 26-28, San Francisco, California 205578, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Djuric, Ivan & Götz, Linde, 2016. "Export restrictions – Do consumers really benefit? The wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-123.
    16. Kym Anderson & Roehlano Briones, 2025. "Philippines agricultural protection and insulation in international perspective," Departmental Working Papers 2025-12, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    17. Jayson Beckman & Carmen Estrades & Angel Aguiar, 2019. "Export taxes, food prices and poverty: a global CGE evaluation," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 11(1), pages 233-247, February.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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