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Export restrictions – Do consumers really benefit? The wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia

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  • Djuric, Ivan
  • Götz, Linde

Abstract

Our approach combines price transmission and gross margin analysis at different stages of the wheat-to-bread supply chain. Results suggest that the effects of export restrictions on the end consumer prices for bread, and thus food price inflation, heavily depend on the price behavior of the intermediates. In contrast to theory, consumers in Serbia experienced welfare losses despite comprehensive governmental market interventions. In particular, consumers were confronted with increasing flour and bread prices, which cannot be fully explained by increasing production costs, whereas mills, bakeries and retailers increased their profits. Thus, export controls in combination with high price volatility in the supply chain have to be considered as a further factor driving food price inflation.

Suggested Citation

  • Djuric, Ivan & Götz, Linde, 2016. "Export restrictions – Do consumers really benefit? The wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 112-123.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfpoli:v:63:y:2016:i:c:p:112-123
    DOI: 10.1016/j.foodpol.2016.07.002
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Export restrictions; Gross margin; Markov-switching model; Price transmission; Serbia; Supply chain;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • I31 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - General Welfare, Well-Being
    • P22 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Prices
    • P23 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - Factor and Product Markets; Industry Studies; Population
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy

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