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Modeling the Global Economy – Forward-Looking Scenarios for Agriculture

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  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique

Abstract

The development of global computable general equilibrium (CGE) models lagged behind development of national models as globally consistent datasets were not readily available and software and hardware were generally not up to the task. As the latter improved and data became more readily available – particularly through the efforts of the GTAP consortium – the use of global CGE models to examine critical economic policies of an international or a global nature exploded in the 1990s. The catalysts of the use of global CGE models were international trade negotiations in the form of the Uruguay Round and the rising concern over global warming. Over the last two decades global CGE models have expanded in size, complexity and the range of policy issues including bilateral and regional trade agreements, the role of trade preferences, trade in services, international migration, foreign direct investment, cross-border environmental issues, structural transformation, demographics and more. This chapter is focused on work largely undertaken at the World Bank over the last decade using the ENVISAGE model with a focus on long-run dynamics, impacts on agriculture and interactions with climate change.

Suggested Citation

  • van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2013. "Modeling the Global Economy – Forward-Looking Scenarios for Agriculture," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, Elsevier.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:hacchp:v:1:y:2013:i:c:p:933-994
    DOI: 10.1016/B978-0-444-59568-3.00014-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Timmer, Hans, 2015. "Stress-testing Africa's recent growth and poverty performance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 521-547.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economy-wide projections; agricultural projections; climate change;

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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