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Stress-testing Africa's recent growth and poverty performance

Author

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  • Devarajan, Shantayanan
  • Go, Delfin S.
  • Maliszewska, Maryla
  • Osorio-Rodarte, Israel
  • Timmer, Hans

Abstract

After an impressive acceleration in growth and poverty reduction since the mid-1990s, many African countries continue to register robust growth in the aftermath of the global financial crisis. Will this growth persist, given the tepid recovery in developed countries, numerous weather shocks, and civil conflicts in Africa? This paper “stress tests” African economies. The findings indicate that Africa's long-term growth is fairly impervious to a prolonged recession in high-income countries. Growth is, however, much more sensitive to a disruption of capital flows to the region, and to internal shocks, such as civil conflict and drought, even if the latter follow historical patterns. The broad policy implication is that with proper domestic production conditions African countries can sustain robust long-term growth. Because of the economic dominance of the agriculture sector and the share of food in household budgets, countries will need to increase the resilience of agriculture and protect it from unfavorable climate change impacts, such as drought. As in the past, civil conflicts and violence will pose by far the greatest threat to Africa's performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Devarajan, Shantayanan & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Timmer, Hans, 2015. "Stress-testing Africa's recent growth and poverty performance," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 521-547.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jpolmo:v:37:y:2015:i:4:p:521-547
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpolmod.2015.04.006
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Edward J. Balistreri & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte & David G. Tarr & Hidemichi Yonezawa, 2016. "Poverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Reducing Trade Costs Through Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa," Working Papers 2016-07, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    2. Punam Chuhan-Pole & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Cesar Calderon & Luc Christiaensen & David Evans & Gerard Kambou & Sebastien Boreux & Vijdan Korman & Megumi Kubota & Mapi Buitano, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, April 2015," World Bank Other Operational Studies 21736, The World Bank.
    3. repec:eee:wdevel:v:96:y:2017:i:c:p:65-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. World Bank, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, October 2013 : An Analysis of Issues Shaping Africa's Economic Future," World Bank Other Operational Studies 20237, The World Bank.
    5. Hill, Ruth Vargas & Porter, Catherine, 2017. "Vulnerability to Drought and Food Price Shocks: Evidence from Ethiopia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 65-77.
    6. S. Amer Ahmed & Marcio Cruz & Delfin S. Go & Maryla Maliszewska & Israel Osorio-Rodarte, 2016. "How Significant Is Sub-Saharan Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(4), pages 762-793, November.
    7. World Bank & International Monetary Fund, 2016. "Global Monitoring Report 2015/2016," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 22547, October.
    8. Rozenberg,Julie & Hallegatte,Stephane, 2015. "The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and the potential from rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7483, The World Bank.
    9. Ahmed,Syud Amer & Baris,Enis & Go,Delfin Sia & Lofgren,Hans & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Thierfelder,Karen E. & Ahmed,Syud Amer & Baris,Enis & Go,Delfin Sia & Lofgren,Hans & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Thier, 2017. "Assessing the global economic and poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8133, The World Bank.
    10. repec:eee:jpolmo:v:40:y:2018:i:2:p:434-451 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Ahmed, S. Amer & Go,Delfin Sia & Willenbockel,Dirk Andreas, 2016. "Global migration revisited : short-term pains, long-term gains, and the potential of south-south migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7628, The World Bank.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty; Economic development; Africa; Computable general equilibrium (CGE) models;

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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