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How significant is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?

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Listed:
  • Ahmed, S. Amer
  • Cruz, Marcio
  • Go, Delfin S.
  • Maliszewska, Maryla
  • Osorio-Rodarte, Israel

Abstract

Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes in the coming decades with the rising working age share of its population. African countries will have the opportunity to convert these changes into substantial demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction. The dividend for growth could account for about 0.37 to.42 percentage points of average annual real GDP per capita growth between 2011 and 2030, equal to 11 to 15 percent of GDP volume growth, while accounting for 40 to 60 million fewer poor in 2030. Countries with the most rapid demographic changes have the greatest potential gains. However, these dividends however can only be achieved if the working age population growth can be accompanied by improvements in employment and labor force participation rates, and if the falling dependency ratios can accelerate growth of the capital stock and deepen capital.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Go, Delfin S. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel, 2014. "How significant is Africa’s Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?," Conference papers 332459, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332459
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    1. Pedro M. G. Martins, 2018. "Structural change in Ethiopia," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 36(S1), pages 183-200, March.
    2. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose, 2016. "On the impact of demographic change on growth, savings, and poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7805, The World Bank.
    3. Ahmed,Syud Amer & Baris,Enis & Go,Delfin Sia & Lofgren,Hans & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Thierfelder,Karen E. & Ahmed,Syud Amer & Baris,Enis & Go,Delfin Sia & Lofgren,Hans & Osorio-Rodarte,Israel & Thier, 2017. "Assessing the global economic and poverty effects of antimicrobial resistance," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8133, The World Bank.
    4. Rozenberg,Julie & Hallegatte,Stephane, 2015. "The impacts of climate change on poverty in 2030 and the potential from rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7483, The World Bank.
    5. Ferrantino,Michael Joseph & Maliszewska,Maryla & Taran,Svitlana, 2020. "Actual and Potential Trade Agreements in the Asia-Pacific : Estimated Effects," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9496, The World Bank.
    6. Osorio Rodarte, Israel, 2016. "Modeling Distributional Effects of Macroeconomic Shocks: Increasing female participation and human capital in Turkey," Conference papers 332777, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    7. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose, 2016. "Making the most of demographic change in Southern Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7798, The World Bank.
    8. Ahmed, S. Amer & Go,Delfin Sia & Willenbockel,Dirk Andreas, 2016. "Global migration revisited : short-term pains, long-term gains, and the potential of south-south migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7628, The World Bank.
    9. Balistreri, Edward J. & Maliszewska, Maryla & Osorio-Rodarte, Israel & Tarr, David G. & Yonezawa, Hidemichi, 2016. "Poverty and Shared Prosperity Implications of Deep Integration in Eastern and Southern Africa," Conference papers 332681, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Livia Elisa Ortensi & Alessio Menonna, 2017. "Migrating with Special Needs? Projections of Flows of Migrant Women with Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting Toward Europe 2016–2030," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 559-583, October.
    11. Boako, Gideon & Alagidede, Paul, 2017. "Co-movement of Africa’s equity markets: Regional and global analysis in the frequency–time domains," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 468(C), pages 359-380.

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