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Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050


  • Samir KC

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU))

  • Bilal Barakat

    (Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften)

  • Anne Goujon

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU))

  • Vegard Skirbekk

    (Columbia University)

  • Warren C. Sanderson

    (Stony Brook University)

  • Wolfgang Lutz

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ÖAW, WU))


Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, we present the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Samir KC & Bilal Barakat & Anne Goujon & Vegard Skirbekk & Warren C. Sanderson & Wolfgang Lutz, 2010. "Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(15), pages 383-472, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:22:y:2010:i:15

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Victor Lavy & Analia Schlosser, 2005. "New Evidence on the Causal Link Between the Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Working Papers 11835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chappuis, Thomas & Terrie Walmsley, 2011. "Projections for World CGE Model Baselines," GTAP Research Memoranda 3728, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    2. Sánchez-Romero, Miguel & Sambt, Jože & Prskawetz, Alexia, 2013. "Quantifying the role of alternative pension reforms on the Austrian economy," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 94-114.
    3. Frédéric Docquier & Joël Machado, 2017. "Income disparities, population and migration flows over the 21st century," Development Working Papers 421, Centro Studi Luca d'Agliano, University of Milano, revised 23 Feb 2017.
    4. Martin Klesment & Allan Puur & Leen Rahnu & Luule Sakkeus, 2014. "Varying association between education and second births in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 31(27), pages 813-860, October.
    5. Yang, Fan & Brockmeier, Martina, 2012. "An Outlook of World Food Prices and Macroeconomic Indicators in 2020 - A Sensitivity Analysis of Different Baseline Scenarios Using GTAP," 52nd Annual Conference, Stuttgart, Germany, September 26-28, 2012 133056, German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA).
    6. Wolfgang Lutz & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Mohammad Jalal Abbasi-Shavazi, 2010. "Demography, Education, and Democracy: Global Trends and the Case of Iran," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 36(2), pages 253-281.
    7. repec:kap:poprpr:v:36:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11113-016-9423-z is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus & Havettová, Miroslava & Lábaj, Martin, 2013. "Income convergence prospects in Europe: Assessing the role of human capital dynamics," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 493-507.
    9. repec:spr:italej:v:3:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s40797-017-0054-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Angel de la Fuente & Rafael Doménech, 2013. "Cross-country data on the quantity of schooling: a selective survey and some quality measures," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 936.13, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    11. Ahmed, S. Amer & Vargas Da Cruz,Marcio Jose & Quillin,Bryce Ramsey & Schellekens,Philip, 2016. "Demographic change and development : a global typology," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7893, The World Bank.
    12. Angel de la Fuente & Rafael Domènech, 2012. "Educational Attainment in the OECD, 1960-2010," Working Papers 658, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
    13. Erich Striessnig & Wolfgang Lutz, 2014. "How does education change the relationship between fertility and age-dependency under environmental constraints? A long-term simulation exercise," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 30(16), pages 465-492, February.
    14. Mathias Dolls & Karina Doorley & Alari Paulus & Hilmar Schneider & Sebastian Siegloch & Eric Sommer, 2017. "Fiscal sustainability and demographic change: a micro-approach for 27 EU countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(4), pages 575-615, August.
    15. Katharina Herlofson & Gunhild Hagestad, 2011. "Challenges in moving from macro to micro: Population and family structures in ageing societies," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(10), pages 337-370, August.
    16. repec:spr:eurpop:v:33:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10680-016-9407-z is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Guy Abel, 2013. "Estimating global migration flow tables using place of birth data," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 28(18), pages 505-546, March.
    18. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0388-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Fanny A. Kluge & Emilio Zagheni & Elke Loichinger & Tobias C. Vogt, 2014. "The advantages of demographic change after the wave: fewer and older, but healthier, greener, and more productive?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2014-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    20. Wilfried Altzinger & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma & Petra Sauer & Alyssa Schneebaum & Bernhard Rumplmaier, 2015. "Education and Social Mobility in Europe: Levelling the Playing Field for Europe’s Children and Fuelling its Economy," WWWforEurope Working Papers series 80, WWWforEurope.
    21. Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo & Oberhofer, Harald & Smits, Karlis & Vincelette, Gallina A, 2012. "Drivers of convergence in eleven eastern European countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6185, The World Bank.
    22. de la Fuente, Angel & Doménech, Rafael, 2015. "Educational attainment in the OECD, 1960–2010. Updated series and a comparison with other sources," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 56-74.

    More about this item


    differential fertility; differential of mortality; education; education goals; education policies; education scenarios; educational attainment; human capital; multistate models; projections;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General


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