IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/dem/demres/v22y2010i15.html

Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050

Author

Listed:
  • Samir KC

    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA))

  • Bilal Barakat

    (Österreichische Akademie der Wissenschaften)

  • Anne Goujon

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna))

  • Vegard Skirbekk

    (Folkehelseinstituttet (Norwegian Institute of Public Health))

  • Wolfgang Lutz

    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, OeAW, University of Vienna))

  • Warren C. Sanderson

    (Stony Brook University)

Abstract

Using demographic multi-state, cohort-component methods, we produce projections for 120 countries (covering 93% of the world population in 2005) by five-year age groups, sex, and four levels of educational attainment for the years 2005-2050. Taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level, we present the first systematic global educational attainment projections according to four widely differing education scenarios. The results show the possible range of future educational attainment trends around the world, thereby contributing to long-term economic and social planning at the national and international levels, and to the assessment of the feasibility of international education goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Samir KC & Bilal Barakat & Anne Goujon & Vegard Skirbekk & Wolfgang Lutz & Warren C. Sanderson, 2010. "Projection of populations by level of educational attainment, age, and sex for 120 countries for 2005-2050," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 22(15), pages 383-472.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:22:y:2010:i:15
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.15
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol22/15/22-15.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.4054/DemRes.2010.22.15?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Joshua D. Angrist & Victor Lavy & Analia Schlosser, 2005. "New Evidence on the Causal Link Between the Quantity and Quality of Children," NBER Working Papers 11835, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Birdsall, Nancy M. & Griffin, Charles C., 1988. "Fertility and poverty in developing countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 29-55, April.
    3. Bloemen, Hans & Kalwij, Adriaan S., 2001. "Female labor market transitions and the timing of births: a simultaneous analysis of the effects of schooling," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(5), pages 593-620, December.
    4. Elo, Irma T. & Preston, Samuel H., 1996. "Educational differentials in mortality: United States, 1979-1985," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 47-57, January.
    5. Ahuja,Vinod Kumar & Filmer,Deon P., 1995. "Educational attainments in developing countries : new estimates and projections disaggregated by gender," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1489, The World Bank.
    6. Harriet Duleep, 1989. "Measuring socioeconomic mortality differentials over time," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 26(2), pages 345-351, May.
    7. G-Y. Cao, 2000. "The Future Population of China: Prospects to 2045 by Place of Residence and by Level of Education," Working Papers ir00026, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    8. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2004. "Greed and grievance in civil war," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(4), pages 563-595, October.
    9. Cleland, John G. & van Ginneken, Jerome K., 1988. "Maternal education and child survival in developing countries: The search for pathways of influence," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 27(12), pages 1357-1368, January.
    10. Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler, 2000. "Greed and Grievance in Civil War," CSAE Working Paper Series 2000-18, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Halvor Mehlum & Karl Moene & Ragnar Torvik, 2006. "Institutions and the Resource Curse," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(508), pages 1-20, January.
    2. Robert MacCulloch & Silvia Pezzini, 2010. "The Roles of Freedom, Growth, and Religion in the Taste for Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 53(2), pages 329-358, May.
    3. Emily Oster, 2004. "Witchcraft, Weather and Economic Growth in Renaissance Europe," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(1), pages 215-228, Winter.
    4. Christopher Cramer, 2011. "Unemployment and Participation in Violence," World Bank Publications - Reports 9247, The World Bank Group.
    5. Tuki, Daniel, 2023. "Violent conflict and hostility towards ethno-religious outgroups in Nigeria," SocArXiv 2er9a, Center for Open Science.
    6. Shyam Hari P., 2020. "Social Grievances and Corporate Greed: Twenty20 and Conflicts in Kizhakkambalam," Review of Development and Change, , vol. 25(1), pages 54-69, June.
    7. Hugo F. Guerrero Sierra, 2012. "Los conflictos intraestatales contemporáneos: una aproximación a sus causas estructurales," Revista Equidad y Desarrollo, Universidad de la Salle.
    8. Iñaki Permanyer & Jeroen Spijker & Amand Blanes & Elisenda Renteria, 2018. "Longevity and Lifespan Variation by Educational Attainment in Spain: 1960–2015," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(6), pages 2045-2070, December.
    9. James D. Fearon, 2005. "Primary Commodity Exports and Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 49(4), pages 483-507, August.
    10. Edwards, Ryan, 2008. "Widening health inequalities among U.S. military retirees since 1974," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 67(11), pages 1657-1668, December.
    11. Mehrdad Vahabi, 2017. "A critical survey of the resource curse literature through the appropriability lens," CEPN Working Papers 2017-14, Centre d'Economie de l'Université de Paris Nord.
    12. Rieper, Sarah, 2013. "Corporate social responsibility in zones of conflict," PIPE - Papers on International Political Economy 18/2013, Free University Berlin, Center for International Political Economy.
    13. Pegg, Scott, 2010. "Is there a Dutch disease in Botswana?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 14-19, March.
    14. Sharmistha Self & Richard Grabowski, 2006. "Agricultural Development, State Effectiveness And Long-Run Economic Development," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 31(2), pages 73-90, December.
    15. Malul Miki & Hadad Yossi & Bar-El Raphael, 2007. "Ranking and Measuring Efficiency of Middle East Cooperation Projects," Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 54-64, December.
    16. Elbadawi, Ibrahim & Sambanis, Nicholas, 2001. "How much war will we see? Estimating the incidence of civil war in 161 countries," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2533, The World Bank.
    17. Benjamin Aigbe Okonofua, 2013. "Triangulation, Emotional Reactivity, and Violence in the Niger Delta," SAGE Open, , vol. 3(2), pages 21582440134, April.
    18. Mehlum, Halvor & Ove Moene, Karl, 2011. "Aggressive elites and vulnerable entrepreneurs - trust and cooperation in the shadow of conflict," Memorandum 16/2010, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
    19. Adewale Samuel Hassan & Daniel Francois Meyer & Sebastian Kot, 2019. "Effect of Institutional Quality and Wealth from Oil Revenue on Economic Growth in Oil-Exporting Developing Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-14, July.
    20. Nicholas Sambanis, 2001. "Do Ethnic and Nonethnic Civil Wars Have the Same Causes?," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 45(3), pages 259-282, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:22:y:2010:i:15. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Editorial Office (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.