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The role of freedom, growth and religion in the taste for revolution

  • Silvia Pezzini

    ()

  • Robert MacCulloch

    ()

A fundamental question about the determinants of civil conflict is the relative importanceof political freedoms versus economic development. This paper takes a new approach toprovide an answer by using micro-data based on surveys of revolutionary tastes of130,000 people living in 61 nations between 1981 and 1997. Controlling for personalcharacteristics, country and year fixed effects, more freedom and economic growth bothreduce revolutionary support. Losing one level of freedom, equivalent to a shift from theUS to Turkey, increases support for revolt by 4 percentage points. To reduce support bythe same amount requires adding 14 percentage points onto the GDP growth rate. BeingMuslim in a free country has no effect on the probability of supporting revolt comparedto a non-religious person. However being Muslim in a country that is not free increases itby 13 percentage points. Being Christian in a free country decreases the chance ofsupporting revolt by 4 percentage points, compared to a non-religious person, and in anot-free country by 1 percentage point.

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File URL: http://wp.demm.unimi.it/tl_files/wp/2003/DEMM-2003_008wp.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano in its series Departmental Working Papers with number 2003-08.

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Date of creation: 01 Jan 2003
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Handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2003-08
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