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Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania

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Listed:
  • Ahmed, Syud Amer
  • Diffenbaugh, Noah S.
  • Hertel, Thomas W.
  • Ramankutty, Navin
  • Rios, Ana R.
  • Rowhani, Pedram

Abstract

Climate volatility will increase in the future, with agricultural productivity expected to become increasingly volatile as well. For Tanzania, where food production and prices are sensitive to the climate, rising climate volatility can have severe implications for poverty. We develop and use an integrated framework to estimate the poverty vulnerabilities of different socio-economic strata in Tanzania under current and future climate. We find that households across various strata are similarly vulnerable to being impoverished when considered in terms of their stratum’s populations, with poverty vulnerability of all groups higher in the 21st Century than in the late 20th Century. When the contributions of the different strata to the national poverty changes are taken into account, the rural and urban households with diversified income sources are found to account for the largest poverty changes due to their large shares in initial total poverty.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed, Syud Amer & Diffenbaugh, Noah S. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Ramankutty, Navin & Rios, Ana R. & Rowhani, Pedram, 2009. "Climate Volatility and Poverty Vulnerability in Tanzania," 2009 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, 2009, Milwaukee, Wisconsin 49358, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  • Handle: RePEc:ags:aaea09:49358
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.49358
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Thurlow, James & Wobst, Peter, 2003. "Poverty-focused social accounting matrices for Tanzania," TMD discussion papers 112, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    4. Morrissey, Oliver & Leyaro, Vincent, 2007. "Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Tanzania," Agricultural Distortions Working Paper Series 48550, World Bank.
    5. Thomas W. Hertel & Maros Ivanic & Paul V. Preckel & John A. L. Cranfield, 2004. "The Earnings Effects of Multilateral Trade Liberalization: Implications for Poverty," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 18(2), pages 205-236.
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    Keywords

    Environmental Economics and Policy; Food Security and Poverty; International Development;
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