IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Climate Change and Adaptation: The Case of Nigerian Agriculture

  • Francesco Bosello

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and University of Milan, Italy)

  • Lorenza Campagnolo

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and University of Venice, Italy)

  • Fabio Eboli

    (Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and University of Venice, Italy)

Registered author(s):

    The present research offers an economic assessment of climate change impacts on the four major crop families characterizing Nigerian agriculture, covering more than 80% of agricultural value added. The evaluation is performed shocking land productivity in a computable general equilibrium model tailored to replicate Nigerian economic development until the mid of this century. The detail of land uses in the model has been also increased differentiating land types per agro ecological zones. Uncertainty on future climate is captured, using, as input, yield changes computed by a crop model, covering the whole range of variability produced by an envelope of one RCM and tem GCM runs. Climate change turns to be unambiguously negative for Nigeria in the medium term with production losses, increase in crop prices, higher food dependency on foreign imports and GDP losses in all the simulations after 2025. In a second part of the paper a cost effectiveness analysis of adaptation in Nigeria agriculture is conducted. Adaptation practices considered are a mix of cheaper “soft measures” and more costly “hard” irrigation expansion. The main result is that cost effectiveness of the whole package crucially depends on the possibility to implement adaptation exploiting low cost opportunities. In this case all climate change damages can be offset with a benefit cost ration larger than one in all the climate regimes. Expensive irrigation expansion should however be applied on a much more limited acreage compared with soft measures. If adaptation costs are those of the high end estimates, full adaptation ceases to be cost/effective.This points out the need of a careful planning and implementation of adaptation, irrespectively on the type, looking for measures apt to control its unit cost.

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

    File URL: http://www.feem.it/userfiles/attach/2013422153564NDL2013-035.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Paper provided by Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei in its series Working Papers with number 2013.35.

    as
    in new window

    Length:
    Date of creation: Apr 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2013.35
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Corso Magenta, 63 - 20123 Milan
    Phone: 0039-2-52036934
    Fax: 0039-2-52036946
    Web page: http://www.feem.it/
    Email:


    More information through EDIRC

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

    as in new window
    1. Oliver Deke & Kurt Georg Hooss & Christiane Kasten & Gernot Klepper & Katrin Springer, 2001. "Economic Impact of Climate Change: Simulations with a Regionalized Climate-Economy Model," Kiel Working Papers 1065, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
    2. Roy Darwin & Richard Tol, 2001. "Estimates of the Economic Effects of Sea Level Rise," Environmental & Resource Economics, European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 19(2), pages 113-129, June.
    3. Francesco Bosello & Roberto Roson & Richard S.J. Tol, 2004. "Economy-Wide Estimates Of The Implications Of Climate Change: Sea Level Rise," Working Papers FNU-38, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Jan 2004.
    4. Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2013.35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah)

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.