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A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China

Author

Listed:
  • Zhai, Fan

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Lin, Tun

    (Asian Development Bank)

  • Byambadorj, Enerelt

    (Asian Development Bank)

Abstract

This paper examines the potential long-term impacts of global climate change on agricultural production and trade in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Using an economy-wide, global computable general equilibrium model, this paper simulates the scenarios of global agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to 2080. The results suggest that with the anticipated decline in agriculture share of gross domestic product, the impact of climate change on the PRC’s macro economy will be moderate. The food processing subsectors are predicted to bear the brunt of losses from the agricultural productivity changes caused by climate change. Production of some crop sectors (such as wheat), in contrast, is likely to expand due to increased demand from other regions of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhai, Fan & Lin, Tun & Byambadorj, Enerelt, 2009. "A General Equilibrium Analysis of the Impact of Climate Change on Agriculture in the People’s Republic of China," Asian Development Review, Asian Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 206-225.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbadr:2617
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    10. David O’Connor & Fan Zhai & Kristin Aunan & Terje Berntsen & Haakon Vennemo, 2003. "Agricultural and Human Health Impacts of Climate Policy in China: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Guangdong," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 206, OECD Publishing.
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    Cited by:

    1. Oktaviani, Rina & Amaliah, Syarifah & Ringler, Claudia & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Sulser, Timothy B., 2011. "The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy:," IFPRI discussion papers 1148, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Ochuodho, Thomas O. & Lantz, Van A. & Olale, Edward, 2016. "Economic impacts of climate change considering individual, additive, and simultaneous changes in forest and agriculture sectors in Canada: A dynamic, multi-regional CGE model analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 43-51.
    3. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2012. "Impact of climate change on wheat market and food security in Sudan: stochastic approach and CGE model and CGE Model," Congress Papers 124110, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    4. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2016. "Climate change and the Ethiopian economy: a CGE analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(02), pages 205-225, April.
    5. Matthew Shearer & Juliana Salles Almeida & Carlos H. Gutiérrez Jr., 2009. "The Treatment of Agriculture in Regional Trade Agreements in the Americas," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 23538, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2013. "Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 321-331.
    7. Guna Raj Bhatta, 2015. "Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Growth in Nepal," Working Papers id:7272, eSocialSciences.
    8. Kumar, Ajay & Sharma, Pritee, 2013. "Impact of climate variation on agricultural productivity and food security in rural India," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    9. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2011. "Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," Discussion Papers dp-11-09-efd, Resources For the Future.
    10. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38587, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    11. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Saint Lucia," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38566, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Shankar Prasad Acharya Ph.D. & Guna Raj Bhatta, 2013. "Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Growth in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 25(2), pages 1-16, October.
    13. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2012. "Impact Of Climate Change On Cereal Market And Food Security In Sudan: Stochastic Approach And Cge Model," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 134779, Agricultural Economics Society.
    14. Matthew Shearer & Juliana Salles Almeida & Carlos H. Gutiérrez Jr., 2009. "The Treatment of Agriculture in Regional Trade Agreements in the Americas," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 26158, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of Climate Change on the Macroeconomy in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 40037, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    16. repec:nrb:wpaper:nrbwp152013 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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