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A general equilibrium analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture in the People's Republic of China

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  • Zhai, Fan
  • Lin, Tun
  • Byambadorj, Enerelt

Abstract

This paper examines the potential long-term impacts of global climate change on agricultural production and trade in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Using an economy-wide, global computable general equilibrium model, this paper simulates the scenarios of global agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to 2080. The results suggest that with the anticipated decline in agriculture share of gross domestic product, the impact of climate change on the PRC’s macro economy will be moderate. The food processing subsectors are predicted to bear the brunt of losses from the agricultural productivity changes caused by climate change. Production of some crop sectors (such as wheat), in contrast, is likely to expand due to increased demand from other regions of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhai, Fan & Lin, Tun & Byambadorj, Enerelt, 2009. "A general equilibrium analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture in the People's Republic of China," MPRA Paper 21127, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21127
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    Cited by:

    1. Oktaviani, Rina & Amaliah, Syarifah & Ringler, Claudia & Rosegrant, Mark W. & Sulser, Timothy B., 2011. "The impact of global climate change on the Indonesian economy:," IFPRI discussion papers 1148, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    2. Ochuodho, Thomas O. & Lantz, Van A. & Olale, Edward, 2016. "Economic impacts of climate change considering individual, additive, and simultaneous changes in forest and agriculture sectors in Canada: A dynamic, multi-regional CGE model analysis," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 43-51.
    3. Xie, Wei & Huang, Jikun & Wang, Jinxia & Cui, Qi & Robertson, Ricky & Chen, Kevin, 2020. "Climate change impacts on China's agriculture: The responses from market and trade," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Matthew Shearer & Juliana Salles Almeida & Carlos H. Gutiérrez Jr., 2009. "The Treatment of Agriculture in Regional Trade Agreements in the Americas," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 23538, Inter-American Development Bank.
    5. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2013. "Impact of rainfall pattern on cereal market and food security in Sudan: Stochastic approach and CGE model," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 321-331.
    6. Guna Raj Bhatta, 2015. "Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Growth in Nepal," Working Papers id:7272, eSocialSciences.
    7. Kumar, Ajay & Sharma, Pritee, 2013. "Impact of climate variation on agricultural productivity and food security in rural India," Economics Discussion Papers 2013-43, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    8. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2011. "Climate Change and the Ethiopian Economy: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis," RFF Working Paper Series dp-11-09-efd, Resources for the Future.
    9. Robert Becker Pickson & Ge He & Elliot Boateng, 2022. "Impacts of climate change on rice production: evidence from 30 Chinese provinces," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 3907-3925, March.
    10. Somayeh Meyghani & Mahdi Khodaparast Mashhadi & Narges Salehnia, 2023. "Long-term effects of temperature and precipitation on economic growth of selected MENA region countries," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(7), pages 7325-7343, July.
    11. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Saint Lucia," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38566, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    12. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2012. "Impact Of Climate Change On Cereal Market And Food Security In Sudan: Stochastic Approach And Cge Model," 86th Annual Conference, April 16-18, 2012, Warwick University, Coventry, UK 134779, Agricultural Economics Society.
    13. Santos, Cárliton Vieira dos & Oliveira, Aryeverton Fortes de & Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza Ferreira, 2022. "Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and the economy in different regions of Brazil," Revista de Economia e Sociologia Rural (RESR), Sociedade Brasileira de Economia e Sociologia Rural, vol. 60(1), January.
    14. Matthew Shearer & Juliana Salles Almeida & Carlos H. Gutiérrez Jr., 2009. "The Treatment of Agriculture in Regional Trade Agreements in the Americas," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 26158, Inter-American Development Bank.
    15. Francesco Bosello & Lorenza Campagnolo & Raffaello Cervigni & Fabio Eboli, 2018. "Climate Change and Adaptation: The Case of Nigerian Agriculture," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 69(4), pages 787-810, April.
    16. Asmamaw Mulusew & Mingyong Hong, 2024. "A dynamic linkage between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and agricultural productivity: evidence from Ethiopia," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-17, December.
    17. Saibal Kar & Nimai Das, 2015. "Climate Change, Agricultural Production, and Poverty in India," Economic Studies in Inequality, Social Exclusion, and Well-Being, in: Almas Heshmati & Esfandiar Maasoumi & Guanghua Wan (ed.), Poverty Reduction Policies and Practices in Developing Asia, edition 127, chapter 0, pages 55-76, Springer.
    18. Sassi, Maria & Cardaci, Alberto, 2012. "Impact of climate change on wheat market and food security in Sudan: stochastic approach and CGE model and CGE Model," 2012 First Congress, June 4-5, 2012, Trento, Italy 124110, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA).
    19. Gebreegziabher, Zenebe & Stage, Jesper & Mekonnen, Alemu & Alemu, Atlaw, 2016. "Climate change and the Ethiopian economy: a CGE analysis," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 205-225, April.
    20. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 38587, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    21. Shankar Prasad Acharya Ph.D. & Guna Raj Bhatta, 2013. "Impact of Climate Change on Agricultural Growth in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 25(2), pages 1-16, October.
    22. -, 2011. "An assessment of the economic impact of Climate Change on the Macroeconomy in the Caribbean," Sede Subregional de la CEPAL para el Caribe (Estudios e Investigaciones) 40037, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    23. repec:nrb:wpaper:nrbwp152013 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Melese Mulu Baylie & Csaba Fogarassy, 2021. "Examining the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Net Crop Income in the Ethiopian Nile Basin: A Ricardian Fixed Effect Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-16, June.
    25. Oussama Zouabi, 2021. "Climate change and climate migration: issues and questions around an in-transition Tunisian economy," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 164(3), pages 1-20, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    climate change; agriculture; China; general equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q1 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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