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A general equilibrium analysis of the impact of climate change on agriculture in the People's Republic of China

  • Zhai, Fan
  • Lin, Tun
  • Byambadorj, Enerelt

This paper examines the potential long-term impacts of global climate change on agricultural production and trade in the People’s Republic of China (PRC). Using an economy-wide, global computable general equilibrium model, this paper simulates the scenarios of global agricultural productivity change induced by climate change up to 2080. The results suggest that with the anticipated decline in agriculture share of gross domestic product, the impact of climate change on the PRC’s macro economy will be moderate. The food processing subsectors are predicted to bear the brunt of losses from the agricultural productivity changes caused by climate change. Production of some crop sectors (such as wheat), in contrast, is likely to expand due to increased demand from other regions of the world.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 21127.

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Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:21127
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  1. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun, 2008. "How China's farmers adapt to climate change," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4758, The World Bank.
  2. Ronneberger, Kerstin & Berrittella, Maria & Boselle, Francesco & Tol, Richard, 2008. "KLUM@GTAP: Spatially-Explicit, Biophysical Land Use in a Computable General Equilibrium Model," GTAP Working Papers 2611, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  3. Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  4. Shoven,John B. & Whalley,John, 1992. "Applying General Equilibrium," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521319867.
  5. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas & Preckel, Paul & Eales, James, 2003. "Projecting World Food Demand Using Alternative Demand Systems," GTAP Working Papers 1182, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  6. Zhang, ZhongXiang, 2000. "Can China afford to commit itself an emissions cap? An economic and political analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 587-614, December.
  7. Roberto Roson & Ruslana Rachel Palatnik, 2009. "Climate Change Assessment and Agriculture in General Equilibrium Models: Alternative Modeling Strategies," Working Papers 2009_08, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  8. David O’Connor & Fan Zhai & Kristin Aunan & Terje Berntsen & Haakon Vennemo, 2003. "Agricultural and Human Health Impacts of Climate Policy in China: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Guangdong," OECD Development Centre Working Papers 206, OECD Publishing.
  9. Barry Bosworth & Gabriel Chodorow-Reich, 2007. "Saving and Demographic Change: The Global Dimension," Working Papers, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College wp2007-02, Center for Retirement Research, revised Feb 2007.
  10. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, April.
  11. Wang, Jinxia & Mendelsohn, Robert & Dinar, Ariel & Huang, Jikun & Rozelle, Scott & Zhang, Lijuan, 2008. "Can China continue feeding itself ? the impact of climate change on agriculture," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4470, The World Bank.
  12. Cline, William R, 1996. "The Impact of Global Warming on Agriculture: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1309-11, December.
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