Improving Land-use Modelling within CGE to Assess Forest-based Mitigation Potential and Costs
We present a computable general equilibrium model properly modified to analyse the potential role of the European forestry sector within climate mitigation. Improvements on database and modelling frameworks allow accounting for land heterogeneity across and within regions and for land transfers between agriculture, grazing, and forestry. The forestry sector has been modified to track carbon mitigation potential from both intensive and extensive forest margins, which have been calibrated according to a forest sectoral model. Two sets of climate policies are simulated. In a first scenario, Europe is assumed to commit unilaterally to reduce CO2 emissions by 20% and 30%, by 2020. In a second scenario, in addition to the emissions quotas, progressively higher forest sequestration subsidies are paid to European firms to foster the implementation of forestry practices. Results show that including forest carbon in the compliance strategy decreases European policy costs and carbon price, while it does not lead to significant reductions in carbon leakage. We conclude that while European forests can reinforce other mitigation measures, their contribution as a stand-alone abatement strategy results insufficient to comply with emissions reduction targets. Additionally, carbon sinks provided by European temperate forests do not offer considerable mitigation potential if compared with other forest biomes around the world. A much higher forest mitigation would require other regions to take part in a climate stabilization agreement, especially those where old-growth forests exist.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.feem.it/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Valentina Bosetti & Carlo Carraro & Marzio Galeotti & Emanuele Massetti & Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "WITCH. A World Induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," Working Papers 2006_46, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
- Darwin, Roy & Tsigas, Marinos E. & Lewandrowski, Jan & Raneses, Anton, 1995. "World Agriculture and Climate Change: Economic Adaptations," Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn & Roger Sedjo, 1999. "Forest Management, Conservation, and Global Timber Markets," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 81(1), pages 1-13.
- Valentina Bosetti & Ruben Lubowski & Alexander Golub & Anil Markandya, 2009.
"Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation,"
2009.56, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Valentina Bosetti & Ruben Lubowski & Alexander Golub & Anil Markandya, 2010. "Linking Reduced Deforestation and a Global Carbon Market: Impacts on Costs, Financial Flows, and Technological Innovation," Working Papers 2009-01, BC3.
- McKibbin, W.J. & Wilcoxen, P.J., 1995.
"The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model,"
118, Brookings Institution - Working Papers.
- McKibbin, Warwick J. & Wilcoxen, Peter J., 1998. "The theoretical and empirical structure of the G-Cubed model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 123-148, January.
- W. J. McKibbin & P. J. Wilcoxen, . "The Theoretical and Empirical Structure of the G-Cubed Model," Discussion Papers 118, Brookings Institution International Economics.
- Sedjo, Roger A., 1997. "The economics of forest-based biomass supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(6), pages 559-566, May.
- Sands, Ronald & Kim, Man-Keun, 2008. "Modeling the Competition for Land: Methods and Application to Climate Policy," GTAP Working Papers 2606, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Stavins, Robert & Newell, Richard, 1999.
"Climate Change and Forest Sinks: Factors Affecting the Costs of Carbon Sequestration,"
dp-99-31-rev, Resources For the Future.
- Newell, Richard G. & Stavins, Robert N., 2000. "Climate Change and Forest Sinks: Factors Affecting the Costs of Carbon Sequestration," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 211-235, November.
- Stavins, Robert, 2000. "limate Change and Forest Sinks: Factors Affecting the Costs of Carbon Sequestration," Working Paper Series rwp00-001, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
- Ottmar Edenhofer , Brigitte Knopf, Terry Barker, Lavinia Baumstark, Elie Bellevrat, Bertrand Chateau, Patrick Criqui, Morna Isaac, Alban Kitous, Socrates Kypreos, Marian Leimbach, Kai Lessmann, Bertra, 2010. "The Economics of Low Stabilization: Model Comparison of Mitigation Strategies and Costs," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I).
- Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Lee, Huey-Lin & Rose, Steven & Sohngen, Brent, 2009. "The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 299-319, November.
- Brent Sohngen & Robert Mendelsohn, 2003. "An Optimal Control Model of Forest Carbon Sequestration," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 85(2), pages 448-457.
- Jacoby, Henry D. & Reilly, John M. & McFarland, James R. & Paltsev, Sergey, 2006. "Technology and technical change in the MIT EPPA model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5-6), pages 610-631, November.
- G. Cornelis van Kooten & Susanna Laaksonen-Craig & Yichuan Wang, 2007. "Costs of Creating Carbon Offset Credits via Forestry Activities: A Meta-Regression Analysis," Working Papers 2007-03, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
- McDougall, Robert, 2009. "Elasticities of Substitution in Nested CES Systems," GTAP Research Memoranda 3161, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Monfreda, Chad & Ramankutty, Navin & Hertel, Thomas, 2008. "Global Agricultural Land Use Data for Climate Change Analysis," GTAP Working Papers 2601, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Sedjo, Roger A., 2011. "Carbon Neutrality and Bioenergy: A Zero-Sum Game?," Discussion Papers dp-11-15, Resources For the Future.
- Burniaux, Jean-Marc & Truong Truong, 2002. "GTAP-E: An Energy-Environmental Version of the GTAP Model," GTAP Technical Papers 923, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Sohngen, Brent & Tennity, Colleen & Hnytka, Marc & Meeusen, Karl, 2008. "Global Forestry Data for the Economic Modeling of Land Use," GTAP Working Papers 2602, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Hertel, Thomas, 2012. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis using the GTAP Framework," GTAP Working Papers 3751, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Valentina Bosetti, Carlo Carraro, Marzio Galeotti, Emanuele Massetti, Massimo Tavoni, 2006. "A World induced Technical Change Hybrid Model," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 13-38.
- Kerstin Ronneberger & Uwe A. Schneider & Richard S.J. Tol, 2005. "Klum: A Simple Model Of Global Agricultural Land Use As A Coupling Tool Of Economy And Vegetation," Working Papers FNU-65, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised May 2005.
- Pant, Hom M., 2010. "An analytical framework for incorporating land use change and forestry in a dynamic CGE model," 2010 Conference (54th), February 10-12, 2010, Adelaide, Australia 59150, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
- Keeney, Roman & Thomas Hertel, 2005. "GTAP-AGR : A Framework for Assessing the Implications of Multilateral Changes in Agricultural Policies," GTAP Technical Papers 1869, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Henk Folmer & G. Cornelis van Kooten, 2006. "Deforestation," Working Papers 2006-06, University of Victoria, Department of Economics, Resource Economics and Policy Analysis Research Group.
- Lutz, Christian & Meyer, Bernd, 2009. "Environmental and economic effects of post-Kyoto carbon regimes: Results of simulations with the global model GINFORS," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1758-1766, May.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fem:femwpa:2012.19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (barbara racah)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.