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The Impact of Environmental and Climate Constraints on Global Food Supply

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  • Eickhout, Bas
  • van Meijl, Hans
  • Tabeau, Andrzej
  • Stehfest, Elke

Abstract

*Chapter 9 of the forthcoming book "Economic Analysis of Land Use in Global Climate Change Policy," edited by Thomas W. Hertel, Steven Rose, and Richard S.J. Tol. The goal of this Chapter is to study the complex interaction between agriculture, economic growth and the environment, given future uncertainties. We combine economic concepts and biophysical constraints in one consistent modeling framework to be able to quantify and analyze the long-term socio-economic and environmental consequences of different scenarios. Here, we present the innovative methodology of coupling an economic and a biophysical model to combine state of the art knowledge from economic and biophysical sources. First, a comprehensive representation of the agricultural and land markets is required in the economic model. Therefore we included a land demand structure to reflect the degree of substitutability of types of land-use types and we included a land supply curve to include the process of land conversion and land abandonment. Secondly, the adapted economic model (LEITAP) is linked to the biophysical-based integrated assessment model IMAGE allowing to feed back spatially and temporarily varying land productivity to the economic framework. Thirdly, the land supply curves in the economic model are parameterized by using the heterogeneous information of land productivity from IMAGE. This link between an economic and biophysical model benefits from the strengths of both models. The economic model captures features of the global food market, including relations between world regions, whereas the bio-physical model adds geographical explicit information on crop growth within each world region. An illustrative baseline analyses shows the environmental consequences of the default baseline and a sensitivity analyses is performed with regard to the land supply curve. Results indicate that economic and environmental consequences are very dependent on whether a country is land scarce or land abundant.

Suggested Citation

  • Eickhout, Bas & van Meijl, Hans & Tabeau, Andrzej & Stehfest, Elke, 2008. "The Impact of Environmental and Climate Constraints on Global Food Supply," GTAP Working Papers 2608, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  • Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:2608 Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 47
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    Cited by:

    1. Thierry Brunelle & Patrice Dumas, 2012. "Can Numerical Models Estimate Indirect Land-use Change?," Working Papers 2012.65, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    2. Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wally & Birur, Dileep, 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," GTAP Working Papers 2809, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. Banse, Martin & Rothe, Andrea & Tabeau, Andrzej & Van Meijl, Hans & Woltjer,Geert, 2013. "Will improved access to capital dampen the need for more agricultural land? A CGE analysis of agricultural capital markets and world-wide biofuel policies," Factor Markets Working Papers 160, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    4. Méjean, Aurélie & Hope, Chris, 2010. "Modelling the costs of energy crops: A case study of US corn and Brazilian sugar cane," Energy Policy, Elsevier, pages 547-561.
    5. Valin, Hugo & Havlik, Petr & Mosnier, Aline & Obersteiner, Michael, 2010. "Climate Change Mitigation And Future Food Consumption Patterns," 115th Joint EAAE/AAEA Seminar, September 15-17, 2010, Freising-Weihenstephan, Germany 116392, European Association of Agricultural Economists;Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    6. Hertel, Thomas & David Lobell, 2013. "Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change in Rich and Poor Countries: Current Modeling Practice and Potential for Empirical Contributions," GTAP Working Papers 4030, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    7. Tabeau, Andrzej A. & van Meijl, Hans & Banse, Martin & Woltjer, Geert B., 2008. "Agricultural Incomes Development in EU till 2030: Scenario Analysis of Main Driving Factors," 108th Seminar, February 8-9, 2008, Warsaw, Poland 48115, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    8. Hertel, Thomas W. & Lobell, David B., 2014. "Agricultural adaptation to climate change in rich and poor countries: Current modeling practice and potential for empirical contributions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 562-575.
    9. Golub, Alla & Hertel, Thomas & Lee, Huey-Lin & Rose, Steven & Sohngen, Brent, 2009. "The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 299-319, November.

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