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Impactos económicos y sociales de shocks energéticos en Chile: un análisis de equilibrio general

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  • O'Ryan, Raúl
  • De Miguel, Carlos J.
  • Pereira, Mauricio
  • Lagos, Camilo

Abstract

El escenario de alzas en el precio del petróleo y de sus derivados genera diversos efectos que se transmiten a toda la economía chilena. Lo anterior junto con la restricción a la importación de gas natural desde Argentina plantea interrogantes sobre la magnitud de los efectos agregados, sectoriales y distributivos de estos cambios energéticos. Este trabajo analiza desde un punto de vista de equilibrio general computable estático los efectos directos e indirectos de estos shocks internacionales, permitiendo un análisis detallado de los potenciales impactos. El incremento de los precios internacionales del petróleo y de los combustibles genera un impacto levemente negativo sobre el PIB, lo que se explica por el efecto recesivo sobre el consumo. Los sectores más negativamente afectados son el de combustibles, sectores eslabonados a éste como el transporte y la electricidad y aquellos orientados a la provisión de bienes y servicios para el consumo final. En términos de patrón productivo este escenario externo reforzaría las ventajas comparativas tradicionales de Chile guiando su producción hacia los sectores primarios y de recursos naturales. Dentro de los sectores energéticos, el del carbón aparece como beneficiado, ganando participación en la matriz energética. Los impactos sobre el ingreso de los más pobres y su distribución son claramente negativos: contractivos y regresivos. Cuando se incorpora además la restricción a la provisión de gas natural al escenario de aumento del precio de los hidrocarburos, se magnifican los resultados anteriores.

Suggested Citation

  • O'Ryan, Raúl & De Miguel, Carlos J. & Pereira, Mauricio & Lagos, Camilo, 2008. "Impactos económicos y sociales de shocks energéticos en Chile: un análisis de equilibrio general," Medio Ambiente y Desarrollo 5678, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL).
    • Handle: RePEc:ecr:col039:5678
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    Cited by:

    1. Patricio Jaramillo, 2009. "Estimación de VAR Bayesianos para la Economía Chilena," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 24(1), pages 101-126, Junio.
    2. Roberto Álvarez & Álvaro García & Pablo García, 2008. "Energy Costs and Productivity in Chilean Manufacturing Industry," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 482, Central Bank of Chile.

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