IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/cup/endeec/v24y2019i04p395-412_00.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The impacts of the Brazilian NDC and their contribution to the Paris agreement on climate change

Author

Listed:
  • Gurgel, Angelo C.
  • Paltsev, Sergey
  • Breviglieri, Gustavo Velloso

Abstract

This paper measures the economic impacts of Brazil's climate mitigation strategies contained in its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC). To do so, we employ the computable general equilibrium MIT Economic Projection and Policy Analysis model and simulate alternative carbon pricing scenarios (sectoral versus economy-wide carbon markets), set to achieve the country's overall emissions targets announced under the Paris Agreement. The results show relatively cheap emissions reductions from land-use changes and agriculture in the short run: the cost of the Brazilian NDC is predicted to be only 0.7 per cent of GDP in 2030. Further efforts to reduce carbon emissions beyond 2030 would require policy changes, since all the potential emissions reductions from deforestation would be finished and the capacity to expand renewable energy sources would be constrained. In this case, an economy-wide carbon pricing system would help substantially to avoid higher compliance costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Gurgel, Angelo C. & Paltsev, Sergey & Breviglieri, Gustavo Velloso, 2019. "The impacts of the Brazilian NDC and their contribution to the Paris agreement on climate change," Environment and Development Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(4), pages 395-412, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:24:y:2019:i:04:p:395-412_00
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1355770X1900007X/type/journal_article
    File Function: link to article abstract page
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rutherford, Thomas F., 1995. "Extension of GAMS for complementarity problems arising in applied economic analysis," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 19(8), pages 1299-1324, November.
    2. Bento de Souza Ferreira Filho, Joaquim & Theoto Rocha, Marcelo, 2008. "Economic Evaluation of Public Policies Aiming the Reduction of Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazil," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 23, pages 709-733.
    3. Lucena, André F.P. & Clarke, Leon & Schaeffer, Roberto & Szklo, Alexandre & Rochedo, Pedro R.R. & Nogueira, Larissa P.P. & Daenzer, Kathryn & Gurgel, Angelo & Kitous, Alban & Kober, Tom, 2016. "Climate policy scenarios in Brazil: A multi-model comparison for energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 564-574.
    4. Gurgel Angelo & Reilly John M & Paltsev Sergey, 2007. "Potential Land Use Implications of a Global Biofuels Industry," Journal of Agricultural & Food Industrial Organization, De Gruyter, vol. 5(2), pages 1-36, December.
    5. Shoven, John B & Whalley, John, 1984. "Applied General-Equilibrium Models of Taxation and International Trade: An Introduction and Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 22(3), pages 1007-1051, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Alvim, Augusto & Sanguinet, Eduardo, 2020. "Paris agreement on climate change and the possible impacts on Brazilian meat and dairy sectors," MPRA Paper 102997, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Goes, George Vasconcelos & Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves & de Almeida D’Agosto, Márcio & de Mello Bandeira, Renata Albergaria & Grottera, Carolina, 2020. "Transport-energy-environment modeling and investment requirements from Brazilian commitments," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 303-311.
    3. Pedro Henrique Campello Torres & Demerval Aparecido Gonçalves & Flávia Mendes de Almeida Collaço & Kauê Lopes dos Santos & Katia Canil & Wilson Cabral de Sousa Júnior & Pedro Roberto Jacobi, 2020. "Vulnerability of the São Paulo Macro Metropolis to Droughts and Natural Disasters: Local to Regional Climate Risk Assessments and Policy Responses," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(1), pages 1-16, December.
    4. Grottera, Carolina & Naspolini, Giovanna Ferrazzo & La Rovere, Emilio Lèbre & Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves & Nogueira, Tainan de Farias & Hebeda, Otto & Dubeux, Carolina Burle Schmidt & Goes, Georg, 2022. "Energy policy implications of carbon pricing scenarios for the Brazilian NDC implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    5. Augusto Mussi Alvim & Eduardo Rodrigues Sanguinet, 2021. "Climate Change Policies and the Carbon Tax Effect on Meat and Dairy Industries in Brazil," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-20, August.
    6. Ceecee Holz & Guy Cunliffe & Kennedy Mbeva & Pieter W. Pauw & Harald Winkler, 2023. "Tempering and enabling ambition: how equity is considered in domestic processes preparing NDCs," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 271-292, September.
    7. Carvalho, N.B. & Berrêdo Viana, D. & Muylaert de Araújo, M.S. & Lampreia, J. & Gomes, M.S.P. & Freitas, M.A.V., 2020. "How likely is Brazil to achieve its NDC commitments in the energy sector? A review on Brazilian low-carbon energy perspectives," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    8. Hamdy Abdelaty & Daniel Weiss & Delia Mangelkramer, 2023. "Climate Policy in Developing Countries: Analysis of Climate Mitigation and Adaptation Measures in Egypt," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-20, June.
    9. Diniz Oliveira, Thais & Costa Gurgel, Angelo & Tonry, Steve, 2021. "Potential trading partners of a brazilian emissions trading scheme: The effects of linking with a developed region (Europe) and two developing regions (Latin America and China)," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    10. Francisco, Adriana Xavier & Gurgel, Angelo, 2020. "Costs of Reducing Deforestation In Brazil: a General Equilibrium Approach," Conference papers 333161, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. William Wills & Emilio Lebre La Rovere & Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Gaëlle Le Treut & F. Ghersi & Julien Lefèvre & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux, 2022. "Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets," Post-Print hal-03500923, HAL.
    12. Weitzel, Matthias & Vandyck, Toon & Rey Los Santos, Luis & Tamba, Marie & Temursho, Umed & Wojtowicz, Krzysztof, 2023. "A comprehensive socio-economic assessment of EU climate policy pathways," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 204(PA).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gurgel, Angelo Costa, 2012. "Costs of Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazil," 2012 Conference, August 18-24, 2012, Foz do Iguacu, Brazil 125937, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    2. William Wills & Emilio Lebre La Rovere & Carolina Grottera & Giovanna Ferrazzo Naspolini & Gaëlle Le Treut & F. Ghersi & Julien Lefèvre & Carolina Burle Schmidt Dubeux, 2022. "Economic and social effectiveness of carbon pricing schemes to meet Brazilian NDC targets," Post-Print hal-03500923, HAL.
    3. Winchester, Niven & Reilly, John M., 2015. "The feasibility, costs, and environmental implications of large-scale biomass energy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 188-203.
    4. Böhringer, Christoph & Rutherford, Thomas Fox & Wiegard, Wolfgang, 2003. "Computable general equilibrium analysis: Opening a black box," ZEW Discussion Papers 03-56, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    5. Keshab Bhattarai, 2017. "Welfare and Distributional Impacts of Financial Liberalization in an Open Economy: Lessons from a Multi-Sectoral Dynamic CGE Model for Nepal," International Business Research, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(1), pages 181-198, January.
    6. Alexandre Gohin & Herve Guyomard & Chantal Le Mouël, 2006. "Tariff protection elimination and Common Agricultural Policy reform: implications of changes in methods of import demand modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(13), pages 1527-1539.
    7. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    8. Winchester, Niven & Ledvina, Kirby & Strzepek, Kenneth & Reilly, John M., 2018. "The impact of water scarcity on food, bioenergy and deforestation," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 62(3), July.
    9. Keshab Bhattarai & Dung Thi Kim Nguyen & Chan Van Nguyen, 2019. "Impacts of Direct and Indirect Tax Reforms in Vietnam: A CGE Analysis," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-36, May.
    10. Sukati, Mphumuzi, 2014. "The South African Bio ethanol blend mandate and its implications on regional agricultural markets and welfare," MPRA Paper 57702, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Chan, Gabriel & Reilly, John M. & Paltsev, Sergey & Chen, Y.-H. Henry, 2012. "The Canadian oil sands industry under carbon constraints," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 540-550.
    12. Karplus, Valerie J. & Paltsev, Sergey & Babiker, Mustafa & Reilly, John M., 2013. "Applying engineering and fleet detail to represent passenger vehicle transport in a computable general equilibrium model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 295-305.
    13. Octaviano, Claudia & Paltsev, Sergey & Gurgel, Angelo Costa, 2016. "Climate change policy in Brazil and Mexico: Results from the MIT EPPA model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 600-614.
    14. Winchester, Niven & Ledvina, Kirby, 2017. "The impact of oil prices on bioenergy, emissions and land use," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 219-227.
    15. Osman, Rehab Osman Mohamed, 2012. "The EU Economic Partnership Agreements with Southern Africa: a computable general equilibrium analysis," Economics PhD Theses 0412, Department of Economics, University of Sussex Business School.
    16. Sergey Paltsev, 2012. "Implications of Alternative Mitigation Policies on World Prices for Fossil Fuels and Agricultural Products," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-065, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    17. Chen, Y.-H. Henry & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John M. & Morris, Jennifer F. & Babiker, Mustafa H., 2016. "Long-term economic modeling for climate change assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 867-883.
    18. Gurgel, Angelo & Chen, Y.-H. Henry & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John, 2016. "Linking Natural Resources to the CGE framework: the case of Land Use Changes in the EPPA Model," Conference papers 332705, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    19. repec:unu:wpaper:wp2012-65 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Paltsev, Sergey, 2012. "Implications of Alternative Mitigation Policies on World Prices for Fossil Fuels and Agricultural Products," WIDER Working Paper Series 065, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    21. Oliver Schenker, 2013. "Exchanging Goods and Damages: The Role of Trade on the Distribution of Climate Change Costs," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 261-282, February.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cup:endeec:v:24:y:2019:i:04:p:395-412_00. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kirk Stebbing (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cambridge.org/ede .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.