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The impact of oil prices on bioenergy, emissions and land use

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  • Winchester, Niven
  • Ledvina, Kirby

Abstract

We evaluate how alternative future oil prices will influence the penetration of biofuels, energy production, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, land use and other outcomes. Our analysis employs a global economy wide model and simulates alternative oil prices out to 2050 with and without a price on GHG emissions. In one case considered, based on estimates of available resources, technological progress and energy demand, the reference oil price rises to $124 by 2050. Other cases separately consider constant reference oil prices of $50, $75 and $100, which are targeted by adjusting the quantity of oil resources. In our simulations, higher oil prices lead to more biofuel production, more land being used for bioenergy crops, and fewer GHG emissions. Reducing oil resources to simulate higher oil prices has a strong income effect, so decreased food demand under higher oil prices results in an increase in land allocated to natural forests. We also find that introducing a carbon price reduces the differences in oil use and GHG emissions across oil price cases.

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  • Winchester, Niven & Ledvina, Kirby, 2017. "The impact of oil prices on bioenergy, emissions and land use," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 219-227.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:65:y:2017:i:c:p:219-227
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2017.05.008
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    5. Machado, P.G. & Cunha, M. & Walter, A. & Faaij, A. & Guilhoto, J.J.M., 2021. "Biobased economy for Brazil: Impacts and strategies for maximizing socioeconomic benefits," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    6. Stefan Dragos Cirstea & Andreea Cirstea & Irimie Emil Popa & Gabriel Radu, 2019. "The Role of Bioenergy in Transition to a Sustainable Bioeconomy – Study on EU Countries," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 21(50), pages 1-75, February.
    7. Kung, Chih-Chun & Zhang, Ning & Choi, Yongrok & Xiong, Kai & Yu, Jiangli, 2019. "Effectiveness of crop residuals in ethanol and pyrolysis-based electricity production: A stochastic analysis under uncertain climate impacts," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 267-276.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Biofuels; Deforestation; Greenhouse gas emissions; Climate policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L71 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Primary Products and Construction - - - Mining, Extraction, and Refining: Hydrocarbon Fuels
    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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