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The future of U.S. natural gas production, use, and trade

  • Paltsev, Sergey
  • Jacoby, Henry D.
  • Reilly, John M.
  • Ejaz, Qudsia J.
  • Morris, Jennifer
  • O'Sullivan, Francis
  • Rausch, Sebastian
  • Winchester, Niven
  • Kragha, Oghenerume

Two computable general equilibrium models, one global and the other providing U.S. regional detail, are applied to analysis of the future of U.S. natural gas. The focus is on uncertainties including the scale and cost of gas resources, the costs of competing technologies, the pattern of greenhouse gas mitigation, and the evolution of global natural gas markets. Results show that the outlook for gas over the next several decades is very favorable. In electric generation, given the unproven and relatively high cost of other low-carbon generation alternatives, gas is likely the preferred alternative to coal. A broad GHG pricing policy would increase gas use in generation but reduce use in other sectors, on balance increasing its role from present levels. The shale gas resource is a major contributor to this optimistic view of the future of gas. Gas can be an effective bridge to a lower emissions future, but investment in the development of still lower CO2 technologies remains an important priority. International gas resources may well prove to be less costly than those in the U.S., except for the lowest-cost domestic shale resources, and the emergence of an integrated global gas market could result in significant U.S. gas imports.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421511004198
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Policy.

Volume (Year): 39 (2011)
Issue (Month): 9 (September)
Pages: 5309-5321

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Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:39:y:2011:i:9:p:5309-5321
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

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  1. Roberto F. Aguilera & Roderick G. Eggert & Gustavo Lagos C.C. & John E. Tilton, 2009. "Depletion and the Future Availability of Petroleum Resources," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 141-174.
  2. McFarland, James R. & Paltsev, Sergey & Jacoby, Henry D., 2009. "Analysis of the Coal Sector under Carbon Constraints," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 404-424, May.
  3. Finn Roar Aune & Knut Einar Rosendahl & Eirik Lund Sagen, 2008. "Globalisation of natural gas markets – effects on prices and trade patterns," Discussion Papers 559, Research Department of Statistics Norway.
  4. Justine Barden, William Pepper, Vineet Aggarwal, 2009. "The Impact of High Oil Prices on Global and Regional Natural Gas and LNG Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 55-72.
  5. Ruud Egging & Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Steven A. Gabriel, 2008. "Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 845, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  6. Stephen P. A. Brown and Mine K. Yucel, 2009. "Market Arbitrage: European and North American Natural Gas Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 167-186.
  7. Peter R. Hartley and Kenneth B. Medlock III, 2009. "Potential Futures for Russian Natural Gas Exports," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 73-96.
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