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Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream

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  • Chyong, Chi Kong
  • Hobbs, Benjamin F.

Abstract

The mathematical formulation of a strategic Eurasian natural gas market model is presented. The model represents horizontal oligopolistic relationships among producers, bilateral market power between producer (Russia) and transit (Ukraine) countries, detailed transport constraints, and operation decisions over a 20year time horizon. To demonstrate the model's capabilities, a financial and market analysis of the proposed South Stream gas pipeline from Russia via the Black Sea to South Europe is summarized. Insights obtained include the following. First, expectations of high demand growth in Europe and/or transit risks do not justify the construction of the South Stream pipeline because under all demand and Ukraine transit interruption scenarios, the net benefits to the South Stream participants are negative (the NPV ranges from −$1.9billion (bn) to −$7.4bn). Second, Ukraine's perception of high transit market power vis-à-vis Russia may trigger the construction of the otherwise unprofitable South Stream project. Thus, under Ukraine's high transit market power scenario, the NPV of South Stream ranges between $2.4bn and $24.5bn. Third, we find that the South Stream investment increases the efficiency of the European gas market under the following conditions: (i) when gas demand in Europe grows 2% per year up to 2030, (ii) when Ukraine poses high transit market power, or (iii) under a combination of severe transit risks through Ukraine and low demand scenarios in Europe. It should be noted that the value of South Stream to both its project sponsors and the market as a whole is much higher when Ukraine exercises transit market power than under the high demand scenario. Therefore, whether Ukraine is likely to wield market power is crucial to the success of the South Stream project because that is the only scenario in which the project yields both a positive expected NPV to its sponsors and the highest value to the market as a whole.

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  • Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:44:y:2014:i:c:p:198-211
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.04.006
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    10. Tobias Baltensperger & Rudolf M. Fuchslin & Pius Krutli & John Lygeros, 2015. "European Union gas market development," Papers 1512.05343, arXiv.org.
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    14. Robert A. Ritz, 2016. "Strategic investment, multimarket interaction and competitive advantage: An application to the natural gas industry," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1603, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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    18. Chi-Kong Chyong, 2015. "Markets and long-term contracts: The case of Russian gas supplies to Europe," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    19. Böttger, T. & Grimm, V. & Kleinert, T. & Schmidt, M., 2022. "The cost of decoupling trade and transport in the European entry-exit gas market with linear physics modeling," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 297(3), pages 1095-1111.
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    21. Foster, John & Wagner, Liam & Liebman, Ariel, 2015. "Modelling the Electricity and Natural Gas Sectors for the Future Grid: Developing Co-Optimisation Platforms for Market Redesign," MPRA Paper 70114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Baltensperger, Tobias & Füchslin, Rudolf M. & Krütli, Pius & Lygeros, John, 2017. "European Union gas market development," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 466-479.
    23. Schulte, Simon & Weiser, Florian, 2017. "Natural Gas Transits and Market Power - The Case of Turkey," EWI Working Papers 2017-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 15 Aug 2017.
    24. Senderov, S.M. & Edelev, A.V., 2019. "Formation of a list of critical facilities in the gas transportation system of Russia in terms of energy security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 105-112.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas; Computational market equilibrium; Complementarity model; Nord Stream; South Stream; Gazprom; Energy security; Market power;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • L13 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Oligopoly and Other Imperfect Markets
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • H43 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Project Evaluation; Social Discount Rate

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