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A Generalized Nash-Cournot Model for the North-Western European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel SubstitutionDemand Function: The GaMMES Model

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  • Ibrahim Abada
  • Vincent Briat
  • Steve A. Gabriel
  • Olivier Massol

Abstract

This article presents a dynamic Generalized Nash-Cournot model to describe the evolution of the natural gas markets. The aim of this work is to provide a theoretical framework that would allow us to analyze future infrastructure and policy developments, while trying to answer some of the main criticisms addressed to Cournot-based models of natural gas markets. The major gas chain players are depicted including: producers, consumers, storage and pipeline operators, as well as intermediate local traders. Our economic structure description takes into account market power and the demand representation tries to capture the possible fuel substitution that can be made between the consumption of oil, coal and natural gas in the overall fossil energy consumption. We also take into account the long-term aspects inherent to some markets, in an endogenous way. This particularity of our description makes the model a Generalized Nash Equilibrium problem that needs to be solved using specialized mathematical techniques. Our model has been applied to represent the European natural gas market and forecast, until 2030, after a calibration process, consumption, prices, production and natural gas dependence. A comparison between our model, a more standard one that does not take into account energy substitution, and the European Commission natural gas forecasts is carried out to analyze our results. Finally, in order to illustrate the possible use of fuel substitution, we studied the evolution of the natural gas price as compared to the coal and oil prices. This paper mostly focuses on the model description.

Suggested Citation

  • Ibrahim Abada & Vincent Briat & Steve A. Gabriel & Olivier Massol, 2011. "A Generalized Nash-Cournot Model for the North-Western European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel SubstitutionDemand Function: The GaMMES Model," EconomiX Working Papers 2011-8, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
  • Handle: RePEc:drm:wpaper:2011-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Tom Brijs & Daniel Huppmann & Sauleh Siddiqui & Ronnie Belmans, 2016. "Auction-Based Allocation of Shared Electricity Storage Resources through Physical Storage Rights," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1566, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    2. Roman Mendelevitch, 2013. "The Role of CO2-EOR for the Development of a CCTS Infrastructure in the North Sea Region: A Techno-Economic Model and Application," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1308, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Feijoo, Felipe & Huppmann, Daniel & Sakiyama, Larissa & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2016. "North American natural gas model: Impact of cross-border trade with Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1084-1095.
    4. repec:aen:journl:ej37-si3-kiss is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ibrahim Abada & Pierre-André Jouvet, 2013. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1308, Chaire Economie du climat.
    6. Daniel Huppmann, 2012. "Endogenous Investment Decisions in Natural Gas Equilibrium Models with Logarithmic Cost Functions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1253, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    7. Huppmann, Daniel, 2013. "Endogenous shifts in OPEC market power - A Stackelberg oligopoly with fringe," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79758, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    8. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets with a fuel substitution demand function: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1202, Chaire Economie du climat.
    9. Chi-Kong Chyong, 2015. "Markets and long-term contracts: The case of Russian gas supplies to Europe," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    10. Mel Devine & James Gleeson & John Kinsella & David Ramsey, 2014. "A Rolling Optimisation Model of the UK Natural Gas Market," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 209-244, June.
    11. Olivier Massol & Omer Rifaat, 2016. "Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model," Working Papers 2016.29, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    12. Berk, Istemi & Schulte, Simon, 2017. "Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?," EWI Working Papers 2017-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 27 Jan 2017.
    13. Huppmann, Daniel & Egging, Ruud, 2014. "Market power, fuel substitution and infrastructure – A large-scale equilibrium model of global energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 483-500.
    14. repec:kap:netspa:v:17:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11067-016-9330-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Steven Gabriel & Sauleh Siddiqui & Antonio Conejo & Carlos Ruiz, 2013. "Solving Discretely-Constrained Nash–Cournot Games with an Application to Power Markets," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 307-326, September.
    16. Huppmann, Daniel, 2013. "Endogenous production capacity investment in natural gas market equilibrium models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 503-506.
    17. Ibrahim Abada & Andreas Ehrenmann, 2016. "The prisoner’s dilemma in Cournot models: when endogenizing the level of competition leads to competitive behaviors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1641, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    18. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    19. Foster, John & Wagner, Liam & Liebman, Ariel, 2015. "Modelling the Electricity and Natural Gas Sectors for the Future Grid: Developing Co-Optimisation Platforms for Market Redesign," MPRA Paper 70114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    20. Massol, O. & Rifaat, O., 2016. "Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model," Working Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, City University London.
    21. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "Study of the evolution of the northwestern European natural gas markets using S-GaMMES," Working Papers 1203, Chaire Economie du climat.

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    Keywords

    Energy markets modeling; Game theory; Generalized Nash-Cournot equilibria; Quasi-Variational Inequality;

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