IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/energy/v284y2023ics0360544223026488.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Potential changes of regional natural gas market in China amidst liberalization: A mixed complementarity equilibrium simulation in 2030

Author

Listed:
  • Jia, Weidong
  • Gong, Chengzhu
  • Pan, Kai
  • Yu, Shiwei

Abstract

Ensuring the continuous efficient use of natural gas is crucial for China to achieve its carbon peak goal by 2030. This study scrutinizes the prospective effects of an intensified liberalization of China’s natural gas sector in 2030. To accomplish this, a mixed complementarity equilibrium model is employed, capturing the interdependencies among relevant sectors within the industrial chain. Multiple scenarios of liberalization are simulated, encompassing variations in gas demand, pipeline capacity expansion, and the escalation of imported Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG), to identify potential modifications. Scenario results reveal that the insufficient capacity of long-distance pipeline network will significantly hinder the distribution of gas resources and cause a shortage of gas supplies in Eastern region. Furthermore, the expansion of pipeline capacity from Northwest to East is beneficial in low demand scenario, while increasing the receiving and transfer capacity of LNG in Northern and Eastern regions is crucial in face of strong demand growth. Moreover, a decline in LNG imports will put upward pressure on regional prices, and further affect the security of natural gas supply. The findings will offer critical data for policymakers and present a diversified view of natural gas liberalization market under China’s peak carbon emission target in 2030.

Suggested Citation

  • Jia, Weidong & Gong, Chengzhu & Pan, Kai & Yu, Shiwei, 2023. "Potential changes of regional natural gas market in China amidst liberalization: A mixed complementarity equilibrium simulation in 2030," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:284:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223026488
    DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2023.129254
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0360544223026488
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.energy.2023.129254?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel, Steven A. & Zhuang, Jifang & Kiet, Supat, 2005. "A large-scale linear complementarity model of the North American natural gas market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 639-665, July.
    2. Avraam, Charalampos & Bistline, John E.T. & Brown, Maxwell & Vaillancourt, Kathleen & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2021. "North American natural gas market and infrastructure developments under different mechanisms of renewable policy coordination," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 148(PB).
    3. Feijoo, Felipe & Huppmann, Daniel & Sakiyama, Larissa & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2016. "North American natural gas model: Impact of cross-border trade with Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1084-1095.
    4. Gabriel, S.A. & Rosendahl, K.E. & Egging, Ruud & Avetisyan, H.G. & Siddiqui, S., 2012. "Cartelization in gas markets: Studying the potential for a “Gas OPEC”," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 137-152.
    5. XiaoZhi Lim, 2015. "How to make the most of carbon dioxide," Nature, Nature, vol. 526(7575), pages 628-630, October.
    6. Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen and Claudia Kemfert, 2009. "Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 137-150.
    7. Delbono, Flavio & Lambertini, Luca, 2016. "Ranking Bertrand, Cournot and supply function equilibria in oligopoly," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 73-78.
    8. Egging, Rudolf G. & Gabriel, Steven A., 2006. "Examining market power in the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(17), pages 2762-2778, November.
    9. Ferris, Michael C. & Munson, Todd S., 2000. "Complementarity problems in GAMS and the PATH solver," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 165-188, February.
    10. Hu, Wenhao & Ho, Mun S. & Cao, Jing, 2019. "Energy consumption of urban households in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Avraam, Charalampos & Chu, Daniel & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2020. "Natural gas infrastructure development in North America under integrated markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    12. Li, Fengyun & Li, Xingmei, 2022. "An empirical analysis on regional natural gas market of China from a spatial pattern and social network perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 244(PA).
    13. Lin, Boqiang & Li, Zhensheng, 2020. "Analysis of the natural gas demand and subsidy in China: A multi-sectoral perspective," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    14. Devine, Mel T. & Russo, Marianna, 2019. "Liquefied natural gas and gas storage valuation: Lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1389-1406.
    15. Moret, Stefano & Babonneau, Frédéric & Bierlaire, Michel & Maréchal, François, 2020. "Decision support for strategic energy planning: A robust optimization framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 280(2), pages 539-554.
    16. Andersen, Kristoffer S. & Termansen, Lars B. & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Ó Gallachóirc, Brian P., 2019. "Bridging the gap using energy services: Demonstrating a novel framework for soft linking top-down and bottom-up models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 277-293.
    17. Bildirici, Melike E. & Bakirtas, Tahsin, 2014. "The relationship among oil, natural gas and coal consumption and economic growth in BRICTS (Brazil, Russian, India, China, Turkey and South Africa) countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 134-144.
    18. Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2019. "Asset stranding in natural gas export facilities: An agent-based simulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 132-155.
    19. Gong, Chengzhu & Wu, Desheng & Gong, Nianjiao & Qi, Rui, 2020. "Multi-agent mixed complementary simulation of natural gas upstream market liberalization in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    20. Wang, Heming & Wang, Guoqiang & Qi, Jianchuan & Schandl, Heinz & Li, Yumeng & Feng, Cuiyang & Yang, Xuechun & Wang, Yao & Wang, Xinzhe & Liang, Sai, 2020. "Scarcity-weighted fossil fuel footprint of China at the provincial level," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 258(C).
    21. Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2008. "Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 989-1004.
    22. Christoph Bertram & Gunnar Luderer & Felix Creutzig & Nico Bauer & Falko Ueckerdt & Aman Malik & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2021. "COVID-19-induced low power demand and market forces starkly reduce CO2 emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(3), pages 193-196, March.
    23. Pan & Lei Tao & Kang Sun & Levi M. Golston & David J. Miller & Tong Zhu & Yue Qin & Yan Zhang & Denise L. Mauzerall & Mark A. Zondlo, 2020. "Methane emissions from natural gas vehicles in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-10, December.
    24. Gabriel, Steven A. & Vikas, Shree & Ribar, David M., 2000. "Measuring the influence of Canadian carbon stabilization programs on natural gas exports to the United States via a 'bottom-up' intertemporal spatial price equilibrium model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 497-525, October.
    25. Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1995. "Effects of Liberalizing the Natural Gas Markets in Western Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 85-112.
    26. Zhang, Dayong & Shi, Min & Shi, Xunpeng, 2018. "Oil indexation, market fundamentals, and natural gas prices: An investigation of the Asian premium in natural gas trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 33-41.
    27. Holz, Franziska & von Hirschhausen, Christian & Kemfert, Claudia, 2008. "A strategic model of European gas supply (GASMOD)," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 766-788, May.
    28. Liu, Guixian & Dong, Xiucheng & Jiang, Qingzhe & Dong, Cong & Li, Jiaman, 2018. "Natural gas consumption of urban households in China and corresponding influencing factors," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 17-26.
    29. Zhao, Laijun & Li, Deqiang & Guo, Xiaopeng & Xue, Jian & Wang, Chenchen & Sun, Wenjun, 2021. "Cooperation risk of oil and gas resources between China and the countries along the Belt and Road," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    30. Rioux, Bertrand & Galkin, Philipp & Murphy, Frederic & Feijoo, Felipe & Pierru, Axel & Malov, Artem & Li, Yan & Wu, Kang, 2019. "The economic impact of price controls on China's natural gas supply chain," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 394-410.
    31. Wang, Wenya & Fan, L.W. & Zhou, P., 2022. "Evolution of global fossil fuel trade dependencies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PC).
    32. Egging, Ruud & Gabriel, Steven A. & Holz, Franziska & Zhuang, Jifang, 2008. "A complementarity model for the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2385-2414, July.
    33. Franziska Holz, Philipp M. Richter, and Ruud Egging, 2016. "The Role of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon Europe: Infrastructure and Supply Security," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Sustainab).
    34. Dong, Xiucheng & Pi, Guanglin & Ma, Zhengwei & Dong, Cong, 2017. "The reform of the natural gas industry in the PR of China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 582-593.
    35. Yin, Yuwei & Lam, Jasmine Siu Lee, 2022. "Bottlenecks of LNG supply chain in energy transition: A case study of China using system dynamics simulation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).
    36. Li, Tianxiao & Liu, Pei & Li, Zheng, 2021. "Optimal scale of natural gas reserves in China under increasing and fluctuating demand: A quantitative analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    37. Zhang, Jinrui & Meerman, Hans & Benders, René & Faaij, André, 2022. "Potential role of natural gas infrastructure in China to supply low-carbon gases during 2020–2050," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(PA).
    38. Wang, Xiaolin & Qiu, Yangyang & Chen, Jun & Hu, Xiangping, 2022. "Evaluating natural gas supply security in China: An exhaustible resource market equilibrium model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    39. Lin, Boqiang & Kuang, Yunming, 2020. "Natural gas subsidies in the industrial sector in China: National and regional perspectives," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    40. Yu Gan & Hassan M. El-Houjeiri & Alhassan Badahdah & Zifeng Lu & Hao Cai & Steven Przesmitzki & Michael Wang, 2020. "Carbon footprint of global natural gas supplies to China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 11(1), pages 1-9, December.
    41. Maroeska G. Boots, Fieke A.M. Rijkers and Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2004. "Trading in the Downstream European Gas Market: A Successive Oligopoly Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-102.
    42. Fragkos, Panagiotis & Laura van Soest, Heleen & Schaeffer, Roberto & Reedman, Luke & Köberle, Alexandre C. & Macaluso, Nick & Evangelopoulou, Stavroula & De Vita, Alessia & Sha, Fu & Qimin, Chai & Kej, 2021. "Energy system transitions and low-carbon pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia and the United States," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gong, Chengzhu & Wu, Desheng & Gong, Nianjiao & Qi, Rui, 2020. "Multi-agent mixed complementary simulation of natural gas upstream market liberalization in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    2. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    3. Egging-Bratseth, Ruud & Baltensperger, Tobias & Tomasgard, Asgeir, 2020. "Solving oligopolistic equilibrium problems with convex optimization," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 284(1), pages 44-52.
    4. Wei, Qi & Zhou, Peng & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "The congestion cost of pipeline networks under third-party access in China's natural gas market," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 284(C).
    5. Foster, John & Wagner, Liam & Liebman, Ariel, 2015. "Modelling the Electricity and Natural Gas Sectors for the Future Grid: Developing Co-Optimisation Platforms for Market Redesign," MPRA Paper 70114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Wang, Xiaolin & Qiu, Yangyang & Chen, Jun & Hu, Xiangping, 2022. "Evaluating natural gas supply security in China: An exhaustible resource market equilibrium model," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    7. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets with a fuel substitution demand function: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1202, Chaire Economie du climat.
    8. Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2019. "Asset stranding in natural gas export facilities: An agent-based simulation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 132-155.
    9. Feijoo, Felipe & Huppmann, Daniel & Sakiyama, Larissa & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2016. "North American natural gas model: Impact of cross-border trade with Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1084-1095.
    10. Ibrahim Abada & Steven Gabriel & Vincent Briat & Olivier Massol, 2013. "A Generalized Nash–Cournot Model for the Northwestern European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel Substitution Demand Function: The GaMMES Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42, March.
    11. Holz, Franziska & Richter, Philipp M. & Egging, Ruud, 2016. "The Role of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon Europe: Infrastructure and Supply Security," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 37(SI37), pages 33-59.
    12. Devine, Mel T. & Russo, Marianna, 2019. "Liquefied natural gas and gas storage valuation: Lessons from the integrated Irish and UK markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(C), pages 1389-1406.
    13. Möst, Dominik & Perlwitz, Holger, 2009. "Prospects of gas supply until 2020 in Europe and its relevance for the power sector in the context of emission trading," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1510-1522.
    14. Christian Growitsch & Harald Hecking & Timo Panke, 2014. "Supply Disruptions and Regional Price Effects in a Spatial Oligopoly—An Application to the Global Gas Market," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(5), pages 944-975, November.
    15. Vitor Miguel Ribeiro & Gustavo Soutinho & Isabel Soares, 2023. "Natural Gas Prices in the Framework of European Union’s Energy Transition: Assessing Evolution and Drivers," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(4), pages 1-46, February.
    16. Egging, Ruud & Holz, Franziska & Gabriel, Steven A., 2010. "The World Gas Model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 4016-4029.
    17. Franziska Holz & Philipp M. Richter & Ruud Egging, 2013. "The Role of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon Europe: Infrastructure and Regional Supply Security in the Global Gas Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1273, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    18. Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen and Claudia Kemfert, 2009. "Perspectives of the European Natural Gas Markets Until 2025," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 137-150.
    19. Egging, Ruud & Pichler, Alois & Kalvø, Øyvind Iversen & Walle–Hansen, Thomas Meyer, 2017. "Risk aversion in imperfect natural gas markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 259(1), pages 367-383.
    20. Steven A. Gabriel & Supat Kiet & Jifang Zhuang, 2005. "A Mixed Complementarity-Based Equilibrium Model of Natural Gas Markets," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 53(5), pages 799-818, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:284:y:2023:i:c:s0360544223026488. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/energy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.