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A Generalized Nash–Cournot Model for the Northwestern European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel Substitution Demand Function: The GaMMES Model

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  • Ibrahim Abada

    ()

  • Steven Gabriel

    ()

  • Vincent Briat

    ()

  • Olivier Massol

    ()

Abstract

This article presents a dynamic Generalized Nash–Cournot model to describe the evolution of the natural gas markets. The major players along the gas chain are depicted including: producers, consumers, storage and pipeline operators, as well as intermediate local traders. Our economic structure description takes into account market power and the demand representation tries to capture the possible fuel substitution that can be made between the consumption of oil, coal, and natural gas in the overall fossil energy consumption. We also take into account long-term contracts in an endogenous way, which makes the model a Generalized Nash Equilibrium problem. We discuss some means to solve such problems. Our model has been applied to represent the European natural gas market and forecast, until 2030, after a calibration process, consumption, prices, production, and natural gas dependence. A comparison between our model, a more standard one that does not take into account energy substitution, and the European Commission natural gas forecasts is carried out to analyze our results. Finally, in order to illustrate the possible use of fuel substitution, we studied the evolution of the natural gas price as compared to the coal and oil prices. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2013

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  • Ibrahim Abada & Steven Gabriel & Vincent Briat & Olivier Massol, 2013. "A Generalized Nash–Cournot Model for the Northwestern European Natural Gas Markets with a Fuel Substitution Demand Function: The GaMMES Model," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-42, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:netspa:v:13:y:2013:i:1:p:1-42
    DOI: 10.1007/s11067-012-9171-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Huppmann, Daniel, 2013. "Endogenous shifts in OPEC market power - A Stackelberg oligopoly with fringe," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79758, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Steven Gabriel & Sauleh Siddiqui & Antonio Conejo & Carlos Ruiz, 2013. "Solving Discretely-Constrained Nash–Cournot Games with an Application to Power Markets," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 307-326, September.
    3. Tom Brijs & Daniel Huppmann & Sauleh Siddiqui & Ronnie Belmans, 2016. "Auction-Based Allocation of Shared Electricity Storage Resources through Physical Storage Rights," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1566, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    4. repec:aen:journl:ej37-si3-kiss is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Massol, O. & Rifaat, O., 2016. "Phasing out the U.S. Federal Helium Reserve: Policy insights from a world helium model," Working Papers 16/03, Department of Economics, City University London.
    6. Berk, Istemi & Schulte, Simon, 2017. "Turkey's Role in Natural Gas - Becoming a Transit Country?," EWI Working Papers 2017-1, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 27 Jan 2017.
    7. Huppmann, Daniel & Egging, Ruud, 2014. "Market power, fuel substitution and infrastructure – A large-scale equilibrium model of global energy markets," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 483-500.
    8. Ibrahim Abada & Andreas Ehrenmann, 2016. "The prisoner’s dilemma in Cournot models: when endogenizing the level of competition leads to competitive behaviors," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1641, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    9. Mendelevitch, Roman, 2013. "The Role of CO2-EOR for the Development of a CCTS Infrastructure in the North Sea Region: A Techno-Economic Model and Application," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79950, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    10. Daniel Huppmann, 2012. "Endogenous Investment Decisions in Natural Gas Equilibrium Models with Logarithmic Cost Functions," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1253, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    11. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets with a fuel substitution demand function: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1202, Chaire Economie du climat.
    12. Chi-Kong Chyong, 2015. "Markets and long-term contracts: The case of Russian gas supplies to Europe," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1542, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    13. Mel Devine & James Gleeson & John Kinsella & David Ramsey, 2014. "A Rolling Optimisation Model of the UK Natural Gas Market," Networks and Spatial Economics, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 209-244, June.
    14. repec:taf:transr:v:37:y:2017:i:3:p:252-275 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Huppmann, Daniel, 2013. "Endogenous production capacity investment in natural gas market equilibrium models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 503-506.
    16. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    17. repec:eee:ejores:v:268:y:2018:i:1:p:25-36 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Foster, John & Wagner, Liam & Liebman, Ariel, 2015. "Modelling the Electricity and Natural Gas Sectors for the Future Grid: Developing Co-Optimisation Platforms for Market Redesign," MPRA Paper 70114, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Mendelevitch, Roman, 2013. "The Role of CO2-EOR for the Development of a CCTS Infrastructure in the North Sea Region: A Techno-Economic Model and Application," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 79950, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    20. Feijoo, Felipe & Huppmann, Daniel & Sakiyama, Larissa & Siddiqui, Sauleh, 2016. "North American natural gas model: Impact of cross-border trade with Mexico," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 1084-1095.
    21. Ibrahim Abada & Pierre-André Jouvet, 2013. "A stochastic generalized Nash-Cournot model for the northwestern European natural gas markets: The S-GaMMES model," Working Papers 1308, Chaire Economie du climat.
    22. Balazs Sziklai & Laszlo A. Koczy & David Csercsik, 2018. "The geopolitical impact of Nord Stream 2," IEHAS Discussion Papers 1821, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, Hungarian Academy of Sciences.
    23. repec:kap:netspa:v:17:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11067-016-9330-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Frederic Murphy & Axel Pierru & Yves Smeers, 2016. "A Tutorial on Building Policy Models as Mixed-Complementarity Problems," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 46(6), pages 465-481, December.
    25. Ibrahim Abada, 2012. "Study of the evolution of the northwestern European natural gas markets using S-GaMMES," Working Papers 1203, Chaire Economie du climat.

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