The Role of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon Europe: Infrastructure and Regional Supply Security in the Global Gas Model
In this paper, we use the Global Gas Model to analyze the perspectives and infrastructure needs of the European natural gas market until 2050. Three pathways of natural gas consumption in a future low-carbon energy system in Europe are envisaged: i) a decreasing natural gas consumption, along the results of the PRIMES model for the EMF decarbonization scenarios; ii) a moderate increase of natural gas consumption, along the lines of the IEA (2012) World Energy Outlook's New Policy Scenario; and iii) a temporary increase of natural gas use as a bridge technology, followed by a strong decrease after 2030. Our results show that import infrastructure and intra-European transit capacity currently in place or under construction are largely sufficient to accommodate the import needs of the EMF decarbonization scenarios, despite the reduction of domestic production and the increase of import dependency. However, due to strong demand in Asia which draws LNG and imports from Russia, Europe has to increasingly rely on pipeline exports from Africa and the Caspian region from where new pipelines are built. Moreover, pipeline investments open up new import and transit paths, including reverse flow capacity, which improves the diversification of supplies. In the high gas consumption scenario similar pipeline links are realized-though on a larger scale, doubling the costs of infrastructure expansion. In the bridge technology scenario, the utilization rates of (idle) LNG import capacity can be increased for the short period of temporary strong natural gas demand.
|Date of creation:||2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Mohrenstraße 58, D-10117 Berlin|
Web page: http://www.diw.de/en
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Franziska Holz & Christian von Hirschhausen & Claudia Kemfert, 2006.
"A Strategic Model of European Gas Supply (GASMOD),"
Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin
551, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- SMEERS, Yves, 2008. "Gas models and three difficult objectives," CORE Discussion Papers 2008009, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Yves Smeers, 1997. "Computable Equilibrium Models and the Restructuring of the European Electricity and Gas Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 1-31.
- Brigitte Knopf & Yen-Heng Henry Chen & Enrica De Cian & Hannah Förster & Amit Kanudia & Ioanna Karkatsouli & Ilkka Keppo & Tiina Koljonen & Katja Schumacher & Detlef van Vuuren, 2014.
"Beyond 2020 - Strategies and Costs for Transforming the European Energy System,"
2014.15, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
- Brigitte Knopf & Yen-Heng Henry Chen & Enrica De Cian & Hannah Förster & Amit Kanudia & Ioanna Karkatsouli & Ilkka Keppo & Tiina Koljonen & Katja Schumacher & Detlef P. Van Vuuren, 2013. "Beyond 2020 — Strategies And Costs For Transforming The European Energy System," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(su), pages 1340001-1-1.
- Labriet, Maryse & Kanudia, Amit & Loulou, Richard, 2012. "Climate mitigation under an uncertain technology future: A TIAM-World analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S3), pages S366-S377.
- Ruud Egging, Franziska Holz, Christian von Hirschhausen and Steven A. Gabriel, 2009.
"Representing GASPEC with the World Gas Model,"
The Energy Journal,
International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 97-118.
- SMEERS, Yves, 1997. "Computable equilibrium models and the restructuring of the European electricity and gas markets," CORE Discussion Papers 1997061, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Rolf Golombek & Eystein Gjelsvik & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 1995. "Effects of Liberalizing the Natural Gas Markets in Western Europe," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 85-112.
- Ferris, Michael C. & Munson, Todd S., 2000. "Complementarity problems in GAMS and the PATH solver," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 165-188, February.
- Maroeska G. Boots, Fieke A.M. Rijkers and Benjamin F. Hobbs, 2004. "Trading in the Downstream European Gas Market: A Successive Oligopoly Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 73-102.
- Egging, Ruud, 2013. "Benders Decomposition for multi-stage stochastic mixed complementarity problems – Applied to a global natural gas market model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 341-353.
- Ruud Egging & Franziska Holz & Steven A. Gabriel, 2009. "The World Gas Model: A Multi-Period Mixed Complementarity Model for the Global Natural Gas Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 959, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Egging, Ruud & Gabriel, Steven A. & Holz, Franziska & Zhuang, Jifang, 2008.
"A complementarity model for the European natural gas market,"
Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2385-2414, July.
- Ruud Egging & Steven A. Gabriel & Franziska Holz & Jifang Zhuang, 2007. "A Complementarity Model for the European Natural Gas Market," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 732, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
- Lise, Wietze & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2008. "Future evolution of the liberalised European gas market: Simulation results with a dynamic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 989-1004.
- Andre, Jean & Bonnans, Frédéric & Cornibert, Laurent, 2009. "Optimization of capacity expansion planning for gas transportation networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 197(3), pages 1019-1027, September.
- Kjetil T. Midthun & Mette Bjorndal & Asgeir Tomasgard, 2009. "Modeling Optimal Economic Dispatch and System Effects in Natural Gas Networks," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 155-180.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1273. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Bibliothek)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.