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All Quiet on the Eastern Front?: Disruption Scenarios of Russian Natural Gas Supply to Europe

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  • Philipp M. Richter
  • Franziska Holz

Abstract

The Russian-Ukrainian crisis has revitalized the European concerns of supply disruptions of natural gas as experienced in 2006 and 2009. However, the European supply situation, regulation and infrastructure have changed since: imports aremore diversified, EU member states better connected and a common regulation on the security of supply has been introduced. Nevertheless, several East European countries are highly dependent on Russian natural gas. This paper investigates different Russian natural gas export disruptions scenarios and analyses short- and long-term reactions to ensure a sufficient supply of natural gas within Europe. We use the Global Gas Model (GGM), a large-scale mixed complementarity representation of the natural gas sector with a high-level of technical granularity with respect to storage and transportation infrastructure. We find that most of the EU member states are not severely affected by a complete drop out of Russian exports. Removing infrastructure bottlenecks within the EU should still be prioritized in order to secure a sufficient natural gas supply for all EU member states.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp M. Richter & Franziska Holz, 2014. "All Quiet on the Eastern Front?: Disruption Scenarios of Russian Natural Gas Supply to Europe," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1383, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1383
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franz Hubert & Svetlana Ikonnikova, 2011. "Investment Options And Bargaining Power: The Eurasian Supply Chain For Natural Gas," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 85-116, March.
    2. Daniel Huppmann & Ruud Egging & Franziska Holz & Christian Von Hirschhausen & Sophia Ruster, 2011. "The world gas market in 2030 – development scenarios using the World Gas Model," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 35(1), pages 64-84.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    natural gas trade; Russia; Europe; security of supply; infrastructure investment; equilibrium modelling;

    JEL classification:

    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q37 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities

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