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The World Gas Market in 2030: Development Scenarios Using the World Gas Model

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  • Daniel Huppmann
  • Ruud Egging
  • Franziska Holz
  • Sophia Rüster
  • Christian von Hirschhausen
  • Steven A. Gabriel

Abstract

In this paper, we discuss potential developments of the world natural gas industry at the horizon of 2030. We use the World Gas Model (WGM), a dynamic, strategic representation of world natural gas production, trade, and consumption between 2005 and 2030. We specify a "base case" which defines the business-as-usual assumptions based on forecasts of the world energy markets. We then analyze the sensitivity of the world natural gas system with scenarios: i) the emergence of large volumes of unconventional North American natural gas reserves, such as shale gas; ii) on the contrary, tightly constrained reserves of conventional natural gas reserves in the world; and iii) the impact of CO2-constraints and the emergence of a competing environmental friendly "backstop technology". Regional scenarios that have a global impact are: iv) the full halt of Russian and Caspian natural gas exports to Western Europe; v) sharply constrained production and export activities in the Arab Gulf; vi) heavily increasing demand for natural gas in China and India; and finally vii) constraints on liquefied natural gas (LNG) infrastructure development on the US Pacific Coast. Our results show considerable changes in production, consumption, traded volumes, and prices between the scenarios. Investments in pipelines, LNG terminals and storage are also affected. However, overall the world natural gas industry is resilient to local disturbances and can compensate local supply disruptions with natural gas from other sources. Long-term supply security does not seem to be at risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel Huppmann & Ruud Egging & Franziska Holz & Sophia Rüster & Christian von Hirschhausen & Steven A. Gabriel, 2009. "The World Gas Market in 2030: Development Scenarios Using the World Gas Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 931, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp931
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Haftendorn, C. & Kemfert, C. & Holz, F., 2012. "What about coal? Interactions between climate policies and the global steam coal market until 2030," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 274-283.
    2. Richter, Philipp M. & Holz, Franziska, 2015. "All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 177-189.
    3. Mihail Nikolaevich Dudin & Nikolaj Vasilevich Lyasnikov & Vladimir Dmitriyevich Sekerin & Anna Evgenevna Gorohova & Vyacheslav Viktorovich Burlakov, 2016. "Provision of Energy Security at the National Level in the Context of the Global Gas Transportation Industry Development," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 234-242.
    4. Clemens Haftendorn & Franziska Holz & Claudia Kemfert & Christian von Hirschhausen, 2013. "Global steam coal markets until 2030: perspectives on production, trade and consumption under increasing carbon constraints," Chapters, in: Roger Fouquet (ed.), Handbook on Energy and Climate Change, chapter 4, pages 103-122, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    5. Guo, Yingjian & Hawkes, Adam, 2018. "Simulating the game-theoretic market equilibrium and contract-driven investment in global gas trade using an agent-based method," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 820-834.

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    Keywords

    Natural gas; investments; reserves; climate policy;
    All these keywords.

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