IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v80y2015icp177-189.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Richter, Philipp M.
  • Holz, Franziska

Abstract

The 2014 Russian–Ukrainian crisis reignited European concerns about natural gas supply security recalling the experiences of 2006 and 2009. However, the European supply situation, regulation and infrastructure have changed, with better diversified import sources, EU member states being better connected and a common regulation on the security of supply has been introduced. Nevertheless, European dependency on natural gas remained high. This paper investigates different Russian natural gas export disruptions scenarios and analyses short- and long-term reactions in Europe. We use the Global Gas Model (GGM), a large-scale mixed complementarity representation of the natural gas sector with a high level of technical granularity with respect to storage and transportation infrastructure. While we find that most of the EU member states are not severely affected by Russian disruptions, some East European countries are very vulnerable. Prioritizing the removal of infrastructure bottlenecks is critical for securing a sufficient natural gas supply to all EU member states.

Suggested Citation

  • Richter, Philipp M. & Holz, Franziska, 2015. "All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 177-189.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:80:y:2015:i:c:p:177-189
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2015.01.024
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421515000336
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Daniel Huppmann & Ruud Egging & Franziska Holz & Christian Von Hirschhausen & Sophia Ruster, 2011. "The world gas market in 2030 – development scenarios using the World Gas Model," International Journal of Global Energy Issues, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 35(1), pages 64-84.
    2. Egging, Ruud, 2013. "Benders Decomposition for multi-stage stochastic mixed complementarity problems – Applied to a global natural gas market model," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 226(2), pages 341-353.
    3. Paltsev, Sergey, 2014. "Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 262-270.
    4. Lochner, Stefan & Dieckhöner, Caroline, 2012. "Civil unrest in North Africa—Risks for natural gas supply?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 167-175.
    5. Franz Hubert & Svetlana Ikonnikova, 2011. "Investment Options And Bargaining Power: The Eurasian Supply Chain For Natural Gas," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 85-116, March.
    6. Egging, Ruud & Gabriel, Steven A. & Holz, Franziska & Zhuang, Jifang, 2008. "A complementarity model for the European natural gas market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2385-2414, July.
    7. Philipp M. Richter, 2015. "From Boom to Bust? A Critical Look at US Shale Gas Projections," Economics of Energy & Environmental Policy, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1).
    8. Ferris, Michael C. & Munson, Todd S., 2000. "Complementarity problems in GAMS and the PATH solver," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 165-188, February.
    9. Richter, Philipp M. & Holz, Franziska, 2015. "All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 177-189.
    10. Christian von Hirschhausen & Berit Meinhart & Ferdinand Pavel, 2005. "Transporting Russian Gas to Western Europe A Simulation Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 49-68.
    11. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    12. Peter R. Hartley and Kenneth B. Medlock III, 2009. "Potential Futures for Russian Natural Gas Exports," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 73-96.
    13. Hayashi, Masatsugu & Hughes, Larry, 2013. "The policy responses to the Fukushima nuclear accident and their effect on Japanese energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 86-101.
    14. Daniel Huppmann & Ruud Egging & Franziska Holz & Sophia Rüster & Christian von Hirschhausen & Steven A. Gabriel, 2009. "The World Gas Market in 2030: Development Scenarios Using the World Gas Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 931, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    15. Franziska Holz & Philipp M. Richter & Ruud Egging, 2013. "The Role of Natural Gas in a Low-Carbon Europe: Infrastructure and Regional Supply Security in the Global Gas Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1273, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    16. Franziska Holz & Philipp M. Richter & Ruud Egging, 2015. "A Global Perspective on the Future of Natural Gas: Resources, Trade, and Climate Constraints," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 9(1), pages 85-106.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas trade; Russia; Europe; Security of supply; Infrastructure investment; Equilibrium modeling;

    JEL classification:

    • Q34 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Natural Resources and Domestic and International Conflicts
    • Q37 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:80:y:2015:i:c:p:177-189. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Haili He). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.