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Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050

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  • Paltsev, Sergey

Abstract

Russia is an important energy supplier as it holds the world's largest natural gas reserves and it is the world's largest exporter of natural gas. Despite a recent reduction in Russia's exports to Europe, it plans to build new pipelines. We explore the long-term (up to 2050) scenarios of Russian natural gas exports to Europe and Asia using the MIT Emissions Prediction and Policy Analysis (EPPA) model, a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. We found that over the next 20–40years natural gas can still play a substantial role in Russian exports and there are substantial reserves to support a development of the gas-oriented energy system both in Russia and in its current and potential gas importers. Based on the considered scenarios, Russia does not need any new pipeline capacity to the EU unless it wants to diversify its export routes to supply the EU without any gas transit via Ukraine and Belarus. Asian markets are attractive to Russian gas and substantial volumes may be exported there. Relatively cheap shale gas in China may sufficiently alter the prospects of Russian gas, especially in Asian markets. In the Reference scenario, exports of natural gas grow from Russia's current 7Tcf to 11–12Tcf in 2030 and 13–14Tcf in 2050. Alternative scenarios provide a wider range of projections, with a share of Russian gas exports shipped to Asian markets rising to more than 30% by 2030 and almost 50% in 2050. Europe's reliance on LNG imports increases, while it still maintains sizable imports from Russia.

Suggested Citation

  • Paltsev, Sergey, 2014. "Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 262-270.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:42:y:2014:i:c:p:262-270
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2014.01.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paltsev, Sergey & Jacoby, Henry D. & Reilly, John M. & Ejaz, Qudsia J. & Morris, Jennifer & O'Sullivan, Francis & Rausch, Sebastian & Winchester, Niven & Kragha, Oghenerume, 2011. "The future of U.S. natural gas production, use, and trade," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5309-5321, September.
    2. Peter R. Hartley and Kenneth B. Medlock III, 2009. "Potential Futures for Russian Natural Gas Exports," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 73-96.
    3. Stern, Jonathan, 2005. "The Future of Russian Gas and Gazprom," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780197300312.
    4. Goldthau, Andreas, 2008. "Rhetoric versus reality: Russian threats to European energy supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 686-692, February.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Anton Orlov, 2015. "The strategic implications of the second Russia-China gas deal on the European gas market: insights from a Hotelling model in a game theoretical framework," EcoMod2015 8624, EcoMod.
    2. repec:eco:journ2:2018-03-28 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Deane, J.P. & Ó Ciaráin, M. & Ó Gallachóir, B.P., 2017. "An integrated gas and electricity model of the EU energy system to examine supply interruptions," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 193(C), pages 479-490.
    4. Finn Roar Aune, Rolf Golombek , Arild Moe, Knut Einar Rosendahl and Hilde Hallre Le Tissier, 2015. "Liberalizing Russian Gas Markets - An Economic Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Adelman S).
    5. Hafezi, Reza & Akhavan, AmirNaser & Pakseresht, Saeed & Wood, David A., 2019. "A Layered Uncertainties Scenario Synthesizing (LUSS) model applied to evaluate multiple potential long-run outcomes for Iran's natural gas exports," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C), pages 646-659.
    6. Richter, Philipp M. & Holz, Franziska, 2015. "All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 177-189.
    7. repec:eco:journ2:2018-05-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:eco:journ2:2018-06-29 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Girma T. Chala & Abd Rashid Abd Aziz & Ftwi Y. Hagos, 2018. "Natural Gas Engine Technologies: Challenges and Energy Sustainability Issue," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(11), pages 1-44, October.
    10. Bouwmeester, Maaike C. & Oosterhaven, J., 2017. "Economic impacts of natural gas flow disruptions between Russia and the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 288-297.
    11. Alipour, M. & Hafezi, R. & Amer, M. & Akhavan, A.N., 2017. "A new hybrid fuzzy cognitive map-based scenario planning approach for Iran's oil production pathways in the post–sanction period," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 851-864.
    12. Chávez-Rodríguez, Mauro F. & Dias, Luís & Simoes, Sofia & Seixas, Júlia & Hawkes, Adam & Szklo, Alexandre & Lucena, Andre F.P., 2017. "Modelling the natural gas dynamics in the Southern Cone of Latin America," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 201(C), pages 219-239.
    13. Bratanova, Alexandra & Robinson, Jacqueline & Wagner, Liam, 2015. "Modification of the LCOE model to estimate a cost of heat and power generation for Russia," MPRA Paper 65925, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Sergey Paltsev, 2016. "Energy Scenarios: The Value and Limits of Scenario Analysis," EcoMod2016 9371, EcoMod.
    15. Bratanova, Alexandra & Robinson, Jacqueline & Wagner, Liam, 2016. "New technology adoption for Russian energy generation: What does it cost? A case study for Moscow," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 924-939.
    16. Thomas Sattich, 2016. "Energy Imports, Geoeconomics, and Regional Coordination: The Case of Germany and Poland in the Baltic Energy System - Close Neighbours, Close(r) Cooperation?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(4), pages 789-800.
    17. Orlov, Anton, 2016. "Effects of higher domestic gas prices in Russia on the European gas market: A game theoretical Hotelling model," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 188-199.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Natural gas; Exports; Russia; Pipelines; LNG;

    JEL classification:

    • Q47 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy Forecasting
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q37 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Issues in International Trade
    • Q31 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

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