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Assessing gas transit risks: Russia vs. the EU

This paper proposes a Transit Risk Index (TRI) designed to assess the riskiness of pipeline gas imports and to study the effect of introducing new gas routes. TRI controls for gas dependency, transit route diversification, political risks of transit, pipeline rupture probability, and the balance of power between supplying and consuming countries along the transit route. Evaluating TRI for the EU-Russia gas trade, we show that the introduction of the Nord Stream pipeline would further widen already large disparities in gas risk exposure across the EU Member States. The gas risk exposure of the Member States served by Nord Stream would decline. In contrast, EU countries not connected to Nord Stream, but sharing other Russian gas transit routes with the Nord Stream countries, would face greater gas risk exposure. We discuss the implications of our analysis for the design of the common energy policy in the EU.

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Paper provided by Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, Stockholm School of Economics in its series SITE Working Paper Series with number 12.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 03 Jun 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:hasite:0012
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, Stockholm School of Economics, P.O. Box 6501, SE-113 83 Stockholm, Sweden

Phone: (+46 8) 736 9670
Fax: (+46 8) 31 64 22
Web page: http://www.hhs.se/site/

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  1. Christian von Hirschhausen & Berit Meinhart & Ferdinand Pavel, 2005. "Transporting Russian Gas to Western Europe A Simulation Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 49-68.
  2. Joris Morbee & Stef Proost, 2010. "Russian Gas Imports in Europe: How Does Gazprom Reliability Change the Game?," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 79-110.
  3. Le Coq, Chloe & Paltseva, Elena, 2009. "Measuring the Security of External Energy Supply in the European Union," SITE Working Paper Series 2, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics, Stockholm School of Economics.
  4. Waft Grais & Kangbin Zheng, 1996. "Strategic Interdependence in European East-West Gas Trade: A Hierarchical Stackelberg Game Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 61-84.
  5. Finon, Dominique & Locatelli, Catherine, 2008. "Russian and European gas interdependence: Could contractual trade channel geopolitics?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 423-442, January.
  6. Peter R. Hartley and Kenneth B. Medlock III, 2009. "Potential Futures for Russian Natural Gas Exports," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 73-96.
  7. Kruyt, Bert & van Vuuren, D.P. & de Vries, H.J.M. & Groenenberg, H., 2009. "Indicators for energy security," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 2166-2181, June.
  8. Goldthau, Andreas, 2008. "Rhetoric versus reality: Russian threats to European energy supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 686-692, February.
  9. Hubert, Franz & Ikonnikova, Svetlana, 2009. "Investment Options and Bargaining Power the Eurasian Supply Chain for Natural Gas," MPRA Paper 17854, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  10. Franz Hubert & Irina Suleymanova, 2008. "Strategic Investment in International Gas-Transport Systems: A Dynamic Analysis of the Hold-up Problem," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 846, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
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