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Liberalizing Russian gas markets – an economic analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Aune, Finn Roar

    ()

  • Golombek, Rolf

    ()

  • Moe, Arild

    ()

  • Rosendahl , Knut Einar

    () (School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences)

  • Le Tissier, Hilde Hallre

    ()

Abstract

The Russian gas market is highly regulated. In this paper we examine possible impacts of regulatory changes on the demand side of this market. In particular, we consider the effects on Russian energy consumers of removing natural gas subsidies, and how changes in Russian gas consumption may affect its gas export to Europe. We also examine the importance of Russian pipeline capacity to Europe, as well as impacts of hypothetical changes in Russian gas export behavior. For this purpose, we use a detailed numerical model for the energy markets in Europe and Russia – LIBEMOD. Our results suggest that removing implicit subsidies to Russian gas consumers will have substantial impacts on total consumption of gas in Russia, especially in the electricity sector. Gas exports to Europe will be significantly affected as more gas becomes available for exports. Removal of other market imperfections in the Russian energy markets has smaller impacts on prices and quantities than removing gas subsidies. More competitive Russian gas export behavior would lead to much higher gas export to Europe, but our results suggest that Russian welfare would drop due to lower gas export prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Aune, Finn Roar & Golombek, Rolf & Moe, Arild & Rosendahl , Knut Einar & Le Tissier, Hilde Hallre, 2015. "Liberalizing Russian gas markets – an economic analysis," Working Paper Series 11-2015, Norwegian University of Life Sciences, School of Economics and Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:nlsseb:2015_011
    as

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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kristine Grimsrud, Knut Einar Rosendahl, Halvor B. Storrøsten, and Marina Tsygankova, 2016. "Short Run Effects of Bleaker Prospects for Oligopolistic Producers of a Non-renewable Resource," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    2. Golombek, Rolf & Brekke, Kjell Arne & Kittelsen, Sverre A.C., 2013. "Is electricity more important than natural gas? Partial liberalizations of the Western European energy markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 99-111.
    3. Paltsev, Sergey, 2014. "Scenarios for Russia's natural gas exports to 2050," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 262-270.
    4. Golombek, Rolf & Kittelsen, Sverre A.C. & Rosendahl, Knut Einar, 2013. "Price and welfare effects of emission quota allocation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 568-580.
    5. Sagen, Eirik Lund & Tsygankova, Marina, 2008. "Russian natural gas exports--Will Russian gas price reforms improve the European security of supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 867-880, February.
    6. Tsygankova, Marina, 2010. "When is a break-up of Gazprom good for Russia?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 908-917, July.
    7. Finn Roar Aune & Rolf Golombek & Sverre A.C. Kittelsen & Knut Einar Rosendahl, 2008. "Liberalizing European Energy Markets," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 3071.
    8. Richter, Philipp M. & Holz, Franziska, 2015. "All quiet on the eastern front? Disruption scenarios of Russian natural gas supply to Europe," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 177-189.
    9. Christian von Hirschhausen & Berit Meinhart & Ferdinand Pavel, 2005. "Transporting Russian Gas to Western Europe A Simulation Analysis," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 2), pages 49-68.
    10. Peter R. Hartley and Kenneth B. Medlock III, 2009. "Potential Futures for Russian Natural Gas Exports," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Special I), pages 73-96.
    11. Goldthau, Andreas, 2008. "Rhetoric versus reality: Russian threats to European energy supply," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 686-692, February.
    12. Tsygankova, Marina, 2012. "An evaluation of alternative scenarios for the Gazprom monopoly of Russian gas exports," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 153-161.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Russian gas prices; Russian gas export; European energy market;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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