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Strategic Investment in International Gas-Transport Systems: A Dynamic Analysis of the Hold-up Problem

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  • Franz Hubert
  • Irina Suleymanova

Abstract

We develop a dynamic model of strategic investment in a transnational pipeline system. In the absence of international contract enforcement, countries may distort investment in order to increase their bargaining power, resulting in overinvestment in expensive and underinvestment in cheap pipelines. With repeated interaction, however, there is a potential to increase efficiency through dynamic collusion. In the theoretical part we establish a fundamental asymmetry: it is easier to avoid overinvestment than underinvestment. Calibrating the model to fit the Eurasian pipeline system for natural gas, we find that the potential to improve efficiency through dynamic cooperation is large. In reality, however, only modest improvements over the non-cooperative solution have been achieved.

Suggested Citation

  • Franz Hubert & Irina Suleymanova, 2008. "Strategic Investment in International Gas-Transport Systems: A Dynamic Analysis of the Hold-up Problem," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 846, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp846
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Franz Hubert & Svetlana Ikonnikova, 2011. "Investment Options And Bargaining Power: The Eurasian Supply Chain For Natural Gas," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 59(1), pages 85-116, March.
    2. Waft Grais & Kangbin Zheng, 1996. "Strategic Interdependence in European East-West Gas Trade: A Hierarchical Stackelberg Game Approach," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 61-84.
    3. Switgard Feuerstein & Hans Gersbach, 2003. "Is capital a collusion device?," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 21(1), pages 133-154, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:aen:journl:ej37-si3-kiss is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Le Coq, Chloé & Paltseva, Elena, 2012. "Assessing gas transit risks: Russia vs. the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 642-650.
    3. Hubert Franz & Cobanli Onur, 2015. "Pipeline Power: A Case Study of Strategic Network Investments," Review of Network Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 14(2), pages 75-110, June.
    4. Chyong, Chi Kong & Hobbs, Benjamin F., 2014. "Strategic Eurasian natural gas market model for energy security and policy analysis: Formulation and application to South Stream," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 198-211.
    5. Orlova, Ekaterina & Hubert, Franz, 2014. "Network Access and Market Power," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100474, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Le Coq, Chloe & Paltseva, Elena, 2012. "The EU-Russia Gas Relationship: a mutual dependency," SITE Working Paper Series 18, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
    7. Schulte, Simon & Weiser, Florian, 2017. "Natural Gas Transits and Market Power - The Case of Turkey," EWI Working Papers 2017-6, Energiewirtschaftliches Institut an der Universitaet zu Koeln (EWI), revised 15 Aug 2017.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Multilateral bargaining; Hold-up; irreversible investment; collusion;

    JEL classification:

    • L95 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Gas Utilities; Pipelines; Water Utilities
    • L14 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Transactional Relationships; Contracts and Reputation
    • C71 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Cooperative Games

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