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Assessing gas transit risks: Russia vs. the EU


  • Le Coq, Chloé
  • Paltseva, Elena


This paper proposes a Transit Risk Index (TRI) designed to assess the riskiness of pipeline gas imports and to study the effect of introducing new gas routes. TRI controls for gas dependency, transit route diversification, political risks of transit, pipeline rupture probability, and the balance of power between supplying and consuming countries along the transit route. Evaluating TRI for the EU-Russia gas trade, we show that the introduction of the Nord Stream pipeline would further widen already large disparities in gas risk exposure across the EU Member States. The gas risk exposure of the Member States served by Nord Stream would decline. In contrast, EU countries not connected to Nord Stream, but sharing other Russian gas transit routes with the Nord Stream countries, would face greater gas risk exposure. We discuss the implications of our analysis for the design of the common energy policy in the EU.

Suggested Citation

  • Le Coq, Chloé & Paltseva, Elena, 2012. "Assessing gas transit risks: Russia vs. the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 642-650.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:42:y:2012:i:c:p:642-650 DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2011.12.037

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Psarras, John, 2016. "Multicriteria decision support to evaluate potential long-term natural gas supply alternatives: The case of GreeceAuthor-Name: Androulaki, Stella," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 253(3), pages 791-810.
    2. Flouri, Maria & Karakosta, Charikleia & Kladouchou, Charikleia & Psarras, John, 2015. "How does a natural gas supply interruption affect the EU gas security? A Monte Carlo simulation," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 785-796.
    3. Hughes, Larry, 2015. "The effects of event occurrence and duration on resilience and adaptation in energy systems," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 443-454.
    4. Yeeles, Adam & Akporiaye, Alero, 2016. "Risk and resilience in the Nigerian oil sector: The economic effects of pipeline sabotage and theft," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 187-196.
    5. Hughes, Larry & Ranjan, Ashish, 2013. "Event-related stresses in energy systems and their effects on energy security," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 413-421.
    6. Johnson, Corey & Boersma, Tim, 2013. "Energy (in)security in Poland the case of shale gas," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 389-399.
    7. Månsson, André & Johansson, Bengt & Nilsson, Lars J., 2014. "Assessing energy security: An overview of commonly used methodologies," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 1-14.
    8. Le Coq, Chloe & Paltseva, Elena, 2012. "The EU-Russia Gas Relationship: a mutual dependency," SITE Working Paper Series 18, Stockholm School of Economics, Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
    9. Peter Zeniewski & Carlo Brancucci Martínez-Anido & Ivan L.G. Pearson, 2013. "Framing new threats: the internal security of gas and electricity networks in the European Union," Chapters,in: International Handbook of Energy Security, chapter 3, pages 40-69 Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item


    Gas transit risk; Index; Security of supply;

    JEL classification:

    • C80 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - General
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy


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