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Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges

Author

Listed:
  • Taran Faehn
  • Gabriel Bachner
  • Robert Beach
  • Jean Chateau
  • Shinichiro Fujimori
  • Madanmohan Ghosh
  • Meriem Hamdi-Cherif
  • Elisa Lanzi
  • Sergey Paltsev
  • Toon Vandyck
  • Bruno Cunha
  • Rafael Garaffa
  • Karl Steininger

Abstract

Limiting global warming in line with the goals in the Paris Agreement will require substantial technological and behavioural transformations. This challenge drives many of the current modelling trends. This article undertakes a review of 17 state-of-the-art recursive-dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and assesses the key methodologies and applied modules they use for representing sectoral energy and emission characteristics and dynamics. The purpose is to provide technical insight into recent advances in the modelling of current and future energy and abatement technologies and how they can be used to make baseline projections and scenarios 20-80 years ahead. Numerical illustrations are provided. In order to represent likely energy system transitions in the decades to come, modern CGE tools have learned from bottom-up studies. Three different approaches to baseline quantification can be distinguished: (a) exploiting bottom-up model characteristics to endogenize responses of technological investment and utilization, (b) relying on external information sources to feed the exogenous parameters and variables of the model, and (c) linking the model with more technology-rich, partial models to obtain bottom-up- and pathway-consistent parameters.

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  • Taran Faehn & Gabriel Bachner & Robert Beach & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Madanmohan Ghosh & Meriem Hamdi-Cherif & Elisa Lanzi & Sergey Paltsev & Toon Vandyck & Bruno Cunha & Rafael Garaffa , 2020. "Capturing Key Energy and Emission Trends in CGE models: Assessment of Status and Remaining Challenges," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 196-272, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:gta:jnlgea:v:5:y:2020:i:1:p:196-272
    DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.21642/JGEA.050106AF
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    3. Jean Foure & Angel Aguiar & Ruben Bibas & Jean Chateau & Shinichiro Fujimori & Julien Lefevre & Marian Leimbach & Luis Rey-Los-Santos & Hugo Valin, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Baseline Scenarios in Dynamic CGE models: Review and Guidelines Proposal," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 28-62, June.
    4. Jean Chateau & Erwin Corong & Elisa Lanzi & Caitlyn Carrico & Jean Fouré & David Laborde, 2020. "Characterizing Supply-Side Drivers of Structural Change in the Construction of Economic Baseline Projections," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 5(1), pages 109-161, June.
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    9. Khabbazan, Mohammad M. & von Hirschhausen, Christian, 2021. "The implication of the Paris targets for the Middle East through different cooperation options," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 104.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium Models; Long-term economic projections; Energy; Emissions; Greenhouse gases.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O14 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Industrialization; Manufacturing and Service Industries; Choice of Technology
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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