IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v64y2014icp273-287.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting global developments in the basic chemical industry for environmental policy analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Broeren, M.L.M.
  • Saygin, D.
  • Patel, M.K.

Abstract

The chemical sector is the largest industrial energy user, but detailed analysis of its energy use developments lags behind other energy-intensive sectors. A cost-driven forecasting model for basic chemicals production is developed, accounting for regional production costs, demand growth and stock turnover. The model determines the global production capacity placement, implementation of energy-efficient Best Practice Technology (BPT) and global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for the period 2010–2030. Subsequently, the effects of energy and climate policies on these parameters are quantified. About 60% of new basic chemical production capacity is projected to be placed in non-OECD regions by 2030 due to low energy prices. While global production increases by 80% between 2010 and 2030, the OECD's production capacity share decreases from 40% to 20% and global emissions increase by 50%. Energy pricing and climate policies are found to reduce 2030 CO2 emissions by 5–15% relative to the baseline developments by increasing BPT implementation. Maximum BPT implementation results in a 25% reduction. Further emission reductions require measures beyond energy-efficient technologies. The model is useful to estimate general trends related to basic chemicals production, but improved data from the chemical sector is required to expand the analysis to additional technologies and chemicals.

Suggested Citation

  • Broeren, M.L.M. & Saygin, D. & Patel, M.K., 2014. "Forecasting global developments in the basic chemical industry for environmental policy analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 273-287.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:64:y:2014:i:c:p:273-287
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.09.025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S030142151300949X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrea Bassi & Joel Yudken, 2009. "Potential Challenges Faced by the U.S. Chemicals Industry under a Carbon Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 1(3), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Bazilian, Morgan & Onyeji, Ijeoma, 2012. "Fossil fuel subsidy removal and inadequate public power supply: Implications for businesses," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-5.
    3. Ren, Tao & Patel, Martin & Blok, Kornelis, 2006. "Olefins from conventional and heavy feedstocks: Energy use in steam cracking and alternative processes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 425-451.
    4. Worrell, Ernst & Biermans, Gijs, 2005. "Move over! Stock turnover, retrofit and industrial energy efficiency," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 949-962, May.
    5. Okereke, Chukwumerije & McDaniels, Devin, 2012. "To what extent are EU steel companies susceptible to competitive loss due to climate policy?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 203-215.
    6. Hasanbeigi, Ali & Morrow, William & Sathaye, Jayant & Masanet, Eric & Xu, Tengfang, 2013. "A bottom-up model to estimate the energy efficiency improvement and CO2 emission reduction potentials in the Chinese iron and steel industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 315-325.
    7. Saygin, D. & Patel, M.K. & Worrell, E. & Tam, C. & Gielen, D.J., 2011. "Potential of best practice technology to improve energy efficiency in the global chemical and petrochemical sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(9), pages 5779-5790.
    8. Fleiter, Tobias & Worrell, Ernst & Eichhammer, Wolfgang, 2011. "Barriers to energy efficiency in industrial bottom-up energy demand models--A review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 15(6), pages 3099-3111, August.
    9. Neelis, Maarten & Ramirez-Ramirez, Andrea & Patel, Martin & Farla, Jacco & Boonekamp, Piet & Blok, Kornelis, 2007. "Energy efficiency developments in the Dutch energy-intensive manufacturing industry, 1980-2003," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 6112-6131, December.
    10. Pardo, Nicolás & Moya, José Antonio, 2013. "Prospective scenarios on energy efficiency and CO2 emissions in the European Iron & Steel industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 113-128.
    11. Saygin, D. & Worrell, E. & Patel, M.K. & Gielen, D.J., 2011. "Benchmarking the energy use of energy-intensive industries in industrialized and in developing countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 6661-6673.
    12. Phylipsen, Dian & Blok, Kornelis & Worrell, Ernst & Beer, Jeroen de, 2002. "Benchmarking the energy efficiency of Dutch industry: an assessment of the expected effect on energy consumption and CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 663-679, June.
    13. Möllersten, K. & Yan, J. & Westermark, M., 2003. "Potential and cost-effectiveness of CO2 reductions through energy measures in Swedish pulp and paper mills," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 691-710.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Makridou, Georgia & Andriosopoulos, Kostas & Doumpos, Michael & Zopounidis, Constantin, 2016. "Measuring the efficiency of energy-intensive industries across European countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 573-583.
    2. repec:kap:enreec:v:68:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s10640-016-0051-1 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lucia Lavric & Nick Hanley, 2014. "The effects of energy costs on firm re-location decisions," Discussion Papers in Environment and Development Economics 2014-02, University of St. Andrews, School of Geography and Sustainable Development.
    4. repec:sss:wpaper:201402 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Fais, Birgit & Sabio, Nagore & Strachan, Neil, 2016. "The critical role of the industrial sector in reaching long-term emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable targets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 699-712.
    6. Wang, Xiaonan & El-Farra, Nael H. & Palazoglu, Ahmet, 2017. "Optimal scheduling of demand responsive industrial production with hybrid renewable energy systems," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 53-64.
    7. Stefan Lechtenböhmer & Clemens Schneider & María Yetano Roche & Samuel Höller, 2015. "Re-Industrialisation and Low-Carbon Economy—Can They Go Together? Results from Stakeholder-Based Scenarios for Energy-Intensive Industries in the German State of North Rhine Westphalia," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(10), pages 1-26, October.
    8. repec:eee:energy:v:153:y:2018:i:c:p:825-835 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:appene:v:224:y:2018:i:c:p:160-174 is not listed on IDEAS

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:64:y:2014:i:c:p:273-287. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.