The relevance of process emissions for carbon leakage: A comparison of unilateral climate policy options with and without border carbon adjustment
Climate policy arrangements of partial regional coverage, as they seem to emerge from the UNFCCC process, might lead to carbon leakage and hence a broad literature has developed to quantify leakage. Most of these analyses, however, are confined to consider emissions from fuel combustion only. Yet, some of the most relevant simultaneously energy intensive and internationally trade exposed sectors are also subject to substantial emissions from industrial processes. Carbon dioxide emissions can be released in industrial processes which physically or chemically transform materials. In the steel and cement sectors, for example, these process emissions amount to about half of sector carbon dioxide emissions in many countries. We incorporate industrial process emissions based on UNFCCC data into a multi-sectoral multi-regional computable general equilibrium model and analyze the implications of a unilateral EU 20% carbon dioxide emission reduction policy on leakage and the effectiveness of border carbon adjustment in reducing leakage. By comparing the results to a model without process emissions, we find that leakage of climate policy so far has been underestimated. Leakage turns out to be higher when process emissions are correctly accounted for (38% instead of 29% for combustion emissions only). Conversely, border carbon adjustment measures are found to be roughly twice as effective to reduce leakage rates, when process emissions are correctly accounted for — as carbon adjustment rates are more directly targeted to the relevant sectors. Yet, border carbon adjustment measures should not be seen as a panacea as they might impede necessary technological carbon-free innovation, unless they are phased out over time.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wolf Grossmann & Karl Steininger & Christoph Schmid & Iris Grossmann, 2012. "Investment and employment from large-scale photovoltaics up to 2050," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 165-189, May.
- Sergey V. Paltsev, 2001. "The Kyoto Protocol: Regional and Sectoral Contributions to the Carbon Leakage," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 4), pages 53-80.
- Fæhn, Taran & Bruvoll, Annegrete, 2009.
"Richer and cleaner--At others' expense?,"
Resource and Energy Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 103-122, May.
- Taran Fæhn & Annegrete Bruvoll, 2006. "Richer and cleaner - at others' expense?," Discussion Papers 477, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
- Birgit Bednar-Friedl & Veronika Kulmer & Thomas Schinko, 2012. "The effectiveness of anti-leakage policies in the European Union: results for Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 233-260, May.
- Monjon, Stéphanie & Quirion, Philippe, 2011. "Addressing leakage in the EU ETS: Border adjustment or output-based allocation?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 1957-1971, September.
- Stéphanie Monjon & Philippe Quirion, 2010. "Addressing leakage in the EU ETS : Border adjustment or output-based allocation ?," CIRED Working Papers hal-00866444, HAL.
- Stephanie Monjon & Philippe Quirion, 2011. "Addressing leakage in the EU ETS: Border adjustment or output-based allocation?," Post-Print hal-00715352, HAL.
- Böhringer, Christoph & Lange, Andreas & Rutherford, Thomas F., 2014. "Optimal emission pricing in the presence of international spillovers: Decomposing leakage and terms-of-trade motives," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 101-111.
- Christoph Böhringer & Andreas Lange & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2010. "Optimal Emission Pricing in the Presence of International Spillovers: Decomposing Leakage and Terms-of-Trade Motives," NBER Working Papers 15899, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Christoph Böhringer & Andreas Lange & Thomas F. Rutherford, 2012. "Optimal Emission Pricing in the Presence of International Spillovers: Decomposing Leakage and Terms-of-Trade Motives," Working Papers V-347-12, University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
- Hertel, Thomas & Lee, Huey-Lin & Rose, Steven & Sohngen, Brent, 2008. "Modeling Land-use Related Greenhouse Gas Sources and Sinks and their Mitigation Potential," GTAP Working Papers 2605, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Kuik, Onno & Hofkes, Marjan, 2010. "Border adjustment for European emissions trading: Competitiveness and carbon leakage," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1741-1748, April.
- Carolyn Fischer & Alan K. Fox, 2007. "Output-Based Allocation of Emissions Permits for Mitigating Tax and Trade Interactions," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 83(4), pages 575-599.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/7346 is not listed on IDEAS
- van Asselt, Harro & Brewer, Thomas, 2010. "Addressing competitiveness and leakage concerns in climate policy: An analysis of border adjustment measures in the US and the EU," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 42-51, January.
- McDougall, Robert & Aguiar, Angel, 2007. "Initial Preparation of Energy Volume Data for GTAP 7," GTAP Research Memoranda 2521, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Susanne Droege, 2011. "Using border measures to address carbon flows," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(5), pages 1191-1201, September.
- Vermont, Bruno & De Cara, Stéphane, 2010. "How costly is mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture?: A meta-analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 1373-1386, May.
- Bruno Vermont & Stephane De Cara, 2010. "How costly is mitigation of non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture?: A meta-analysis," Post-Print hal-01172939, HAL.
- Jean-Marc Burniaux & Joaquim Oliveira Martins, 2000. "Carbon Emission Leakages: A General Equilibrium View," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 242, OECD Publishing.
- Babiker, Mustafa H., 2005. "Climate change policy, market structure, and carbon leakage," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(2), pages 421-445, March.
- Onno Kuik & Reyer Gerlagh, 2003. "Trade Liberalization and Carbon Leakage," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3), pages 97-120. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)