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Asymmetric industrial energy prices and international trade

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  • Sato, Misato
  • Dechezlepretre, Antoine

Abstract

This paper measures the response of bilateral trade flows to differences in industrial energy prices across countries. Using a panel for the period 1996–2011 including 42 countries, 62 sectors and covering 60% of global merchandise trade, we estimate the short-run effects of sector-level energy price asymmetry on trade. We find that changes in relative energy prices have a statistically significant but very small impact on imports. On average, a 10% increase in the energy price difference between two country-sectors increases imports by 0.2%. The impact is larger for energy-intensive sectors. Even in these sectors however, the magnitude of the effect is such that changes in energy price differences across time explain less than 0.01% of the variation in trade flows. Simulations based on our model predict that a €40-65/tCO2 price of carbon in the EU ETS would increase Europe’s imports from the rest of the world by less than 0.05% and decrease exports by 0.2%.

Suggested Citation

  • Sato, Misato & Dechezlepretre, Antoine, 2015. "Asymmetric industrial energy prices and international trade," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 63634, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:63634
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    File URL: https://researchonline.lse.ac.uk/id/eprint/63634/
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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth

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