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The Competitiveness Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Policies

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  • Aldy, Joseph Edgar
  • Pizer, William

Abstract

The pollution haven hypothesis suggests that unilateral domestic emission mitigation policies could cause adverse “competitiveness†impacts on domestic manufacturers as they lose market share to foreign competitors and relocate production activity – and emissions – to unregulated economies. We construct a precise definition of competitiveness impacts appropriate for climate change regulation that can be estimated exclusively with domestic production and net import data. We use this definition and a 20+ year panel of 400+ U.S. manufacturing industries to estimate the effects of energy prices, which is in turn used to simulate the impacts of carbon pricing policy. We find that a U.S.-only $15 per ton CO2 price will cause competitiveness effects on the order of a 1.0 to 1.3 percent decline in production among the most energy-intensive manufacturing industries. This amounts to roughly one-third of the total impact of a carbon pricing policy on these firms’ economic output.

Suggested Citation

  • Aldy, Joseph Edgar & Pizer, William, 2011. "The Competitiveness Impacts of Climate Change Mitigation Policies," Scholarly Articles 5688779, Harvard Kennedy School of Government.
  • Handle: RePEc:hrv:hksfac:5688779
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    Cited by:

    1. Misato Sato & Gregor Singer & Damien Dussaux & Stefania Lovo, 2015. "International and sectoral variation in energy prices 1995-2011: how does it relate to emissions policy stringency?," GRI Working Papers 187, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment.
    2. Marcos E. Domínguez Viera, 2011. "Does the Impact of Oportunidades Program Increases in Highly Competitive Regions?," Ensayos Revista de Economia, Universidad Autonoma de Nuevo Leon, Facultad de Economia, vol. 0(2), pages 79-111, November.
    3. Valentina Bosetti & David G. Victor, 2011. "Politics and Economics of Second-Best Regulation of Greenhouse Gases: The Importance of Regulatory Credibility," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 1-24.
    4. repec:oup:renvpo:v:11:y:2017:i:2:p:183-206. is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Sharat Ganapati & Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2016. "Energy Prices, Pass-Through, and Incidence in U.S. Manufacturing," Working Papers 16-27, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    6. Alexeeva-Talebi, Victoria & Böhringer, Christoph & Löschel, Andreas & Voigt, Sebastian, 2012. "The value-added of sectoral disaggregation: Implications on competitive consequences of climate change policies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(S2), pages 127-142.
    7. Cox, Michael & Peichl, Andreas & Pestel, Nico & Siegloch, Sebastian, 2014. "Labor demand effects of rising electricity prices: Evidence for Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 266-277.
    8. Adkins, Liwayway & Garbaccio, Richard & Ho, Mun & Moore, Eric & Morgenstern, Richard, 2012. "Carbon Pricing with Output-Based Subsidies: Impacts on U.S. Industries over Multiple Time Frames," Discussion Papers dp-12-27, Resources For the Future.
    9. Sharat Ganapati & Joseph S. Shapiro & Reed Walker, 2016. "The Incidence of Carbon Taxes in U.S. Manufacturing: Lessons from Energy Cost Pass-Through," NBER Working Papers 22281, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Sato, Misato & Dechezleprêtre, Antoine, 2015. "Asymmetric industrial energy prices and international trade," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(S1), pages 130-141.
    11. Dissou, Yazid & Karnizova, Lilia, 2016. "Emissions cap or emissions tax? A multi-sector business cycle analysis," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 169-188.
    12. Ho, Mun S. & Morgenstern, Richard & Shih, Jhih-Shyang, 2008. "Impact of Carbon Price Policies on U.S. Industry," Discussion Papers dp-08-37, Resources For the Future.
    13. Giovanni Marin & Francesco Vona, 2017. "The Impact of Energy Prices on Employment and Environmental Performance: Evidence from French Manufacturing Establishments," Working Papers 2017.53, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    14. Aaditya Mattoo & Arvind Subramanian & Dominique Mensbrugghe & Jianwu He, 2013. "Trade effects of alternative carbon border-tax schemes," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 149(3), pages 587-609, September.
    15. Sheldon, Ian & McCorriston, Steve, 2014. "Climate Policy and Border Measures: The Case of the US Aluminum Industry," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 169544, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Harrison Fell & Peter Maniloff, 2015. "Beneficial Leakage: The Effect of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative on Aggregate Emissions," Working Papers 2015-06, Colorado School of Mines, Division of Economics and Business.
    17. Sakamoto, Tomoyuki & Managi, Shunsuke, 2015. "Energy pricing impact on domestic economy under recent climate action," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 150-162.
    18. Vale, Petterson Molina, 2016. "The changing climate of climate change economics," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 12-19.
    19. Mar Reguant & Meredith Fowlie, 2017. "Measuring and Mitigating Leakage Risk," 2017 Meeting Papers 383, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Klenert, David & Mattauch, Linus & Combet, Emmanuel & Edenhofer, Ottmar & Hepburn, Cameron & Rafaty, Ryan & Stern, Nicholas, 2017. "Making Carbon Pricing Work," MPRA Paper 80943, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Francois Cohen & Giulia Valacchi, 2017. "Do firms innovate if they can relocate? Evidence from te steel industry," CIES Research Paper series 55-2017, Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute.
    22. Heather Klemick, 2012. "What is the Optimal Offsets Discount under a Second-Best Cap & Trade Policy?," NCEE Working Paper Series 201204, National Center for Environmental Economics, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, revised Jul 2012.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F18 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Environment
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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