IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/climat/v122y2014i3p373-386.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

Author

Listed:
  • Detlef Vuuren
  • Elmar Kriegler
  • Brian O’Neill
  • Kristie Ebi
  • Keywan Riahi
  • Timothy Carter
  • Jae Edmonds
  • Stephane Hallegatte
  • Tom Kram
  • Ritu Mathur
  • Harald Winkler

Abstract

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Detlef Vuuren & Elmar Kriegler & Brian O’Neill & Kristie Ebi & Keywan Riahi & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Ritu Mathur & Harald Winkler, 2014. "A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 373-386, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:122:y:2014:i:3:p:373-386
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s10584-013-0906-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Brian O’Neill & Elmar Kriegler & Keywan Riahi & Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Timothy Carter & Ritu Mathur & Detlef Vuuren, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: the concept of shared socioeconomic pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 387-400, February.
    2. Elmar Kriegler & Brian-C O'Neill & Stéphane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Richard-H Moss & Robert Lempert & Thomas J Wilbanks, 2010. "Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis," Working Papers hal-00866437, HAL.
    3. Richard H. Moss & Jae A. Edmonds & Kathy A. Hibbard & Martin R. Manning & Steven K. Rose & Detlef P. van Vuuren & Timothy R. Carter & Seita Emori & Mikiko Kainuma & Tom Kram & Gerald A. Meehl & John F, 2010. "The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment," Nature, Nature, vol. 463(7282), pages 747-756, February.
    4. Kristie Ebi & Stephane Hallegatte & Tom Kram & Nigel Arnell & Timothy Carter & Jae Edmonds & Elmar Kriegler & Ritu Mathur & Brian O’Neill & Keywan Riahi & Harald Winkler & Detlef Vuuren & Timm Zwickel, 2014. "A new scenario framework for climate change research: background, process, and future directions," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 363-372, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Magalhães Filho, L.N.L. & Roebeling, P.C. & Costa, L.F.C. & de Lima, L.T., 2022. "Ecosystem services values at risk in the Atlantic coastal zone due to sea-level rise and socioeconomic development," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    2. Miftakhova, Alena & Judd, Kenneth L. & Lontzek, Thomas S. & Schmedders, Karl, 2020. "Statistical approximation of high-dimensional climate models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 67-80.
    3. Kemp-Benedict, Eric & Carlsen, Henrik & Kartha, Sivan, 2019. "Large-scale scenarios as ‘boundary conditions’: A cross-impact balance simulated annealing (CIBSA) approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 55-63.
    4. Skea, Jim & van Diemen, Renée & Portugal-Pereira, Joana & Khourdajie, Alaa Al, 2021. "Outlooks, explorations and normative scenarios: Approaches to global energy futures compared," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    5. Angel Manuel Benitez Rodriguez & Ian Michael Trotter, 2019. "Climate change scenarios for Paraguayan power demand 2017–2050," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 156(3), pages 425-445, October.
    6. Thomas Wilbanks & Kristie Ebi, 2014. "SSPs from an impact and adaptation perspective," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(3), pages 473-479, February.
    7. Athanasios Thomas Vafeidis & Lena Reimann & Gerald Jan Ellen & Gunnel Goransson & Gerben Koers & Lisa Van Well & Bente Vollstedt & Maureen Tsakiris & Amy Oen, 2024. "Harmonizing the Development of Local Socioeconomic Scenarios: A Participatory Downscaling Approach Applied in Four European Case Studies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(6), pages 1-19, March.
    8. Hans van Meijl & Petr Havlik & Hermann Lotze-Campen & Elke Stehfest & Peter Witzke & Ignacio Perez Dominguez & Benjamin Bodirsky & Michiel van Dijk & Jonathan Doelman & Thomas Fellmann & Florian Humpe, 2017. "Challenges of Global Agriculture in a Climate Change Context by 2050 (AgCLIM50)," JRC Research Reports JRC106835, Joint Research Centre.
    9. Mier, Mathias & Siala, Kais & Govorukha, Kristina & Mayer, Philip, 2023. "Collaboration, decarbonization, and distributional effects," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 341(C).
    10. O'Neill, Brian, 2016. "The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) and their extension and use in impact, adaptation and vulnerability studies," Conference papers 332808, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    11. Matsumoto, Ken׳ichi & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Energy security in East Asia under climate mitigation scenarios in the 21st century," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 59(PA), pages 60-71.
    12. Domicián Máté & Mohammad Fazle Rabbi & Adam Novotny & Sándor Kovács, 2020. "Grand Challenges in Central Europe: The Relationship of Food Security, Climate Change, and Energy Use," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(20), pages 1-16, October.
    13. Qin, Pengcheng & Xu, Hongmei & Liu, Min & Xiao, Chan & Forrest, Kate E. & Samuelsen, Scott & Tarroja, Brian, 2020. "Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 279(C).
    14. Gabriel Bachner & Daniel Lincke & Jochen Hinkel, 2022. "The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-13, December.
    15. Vanessa J. Schweizer, 2020. "Reflections on cross-impact balances, a systematic method constructing global socio-technical scenarios for climate change research," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1705-1722, October.
    16. Liu, Yinshan & Wang, Yuanfeng & Shi, Chengcheng & Zhang, Weijun & Luo, Wei & Wang, Jingjing & Li, Keping & Yeung, Ngai & Kite, Steve, 2022. "Assessing the CO2 reduction target gap and sustainability for bridges in China by 2040," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    17. Leibowicz, Benjamin D. & Krey, Volker & Grubler, Arnulf, 2016. "Representing spatial technology diffusion in an energy system optimization model," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 350-363.
    18. Manolis G. Grillakis & Evangelos G. Kapetanakis & Eleni Goumenaki, 2022. "Climate change implications for olive flowering in Crete, Greece: projections based on historical data," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 175(1), pages 1-18, November.
    19. Céline Guivarch & Julie Rozenberg & Vanessa Schweizer, 2016. "The diversity of socio-economic pathways and CO2 emissions scenarios: Insights from the investigation of a scenarios database," Post-Print halshs-01292901, HAL.
    20. Absar, Syeda Mariya & McManamay, Ryan A. & Preston, Benjamin L. & Taylor, Adam M., 2021. "Bridging global socioeconomic scenarios with policy adaptations to examine energy-water tradeoffs," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:122:y:2014:i:3:p:373-386. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.