Long-term economic growth and environmental pressure: reference scenarios for future global projections

As a wide range of possible factors can affect economic growth projections, it is useful to identify a set of possible future socio-economic development pathways. This paper describes a consistent methodology to derive (per capita) GDP trend pathways on a country basis. The methodology is based on a convergence process and places emphasis on the key drivers of economic growth in the long run: population, total factor productivity, physical capital, employment and human capital, and energy and natural resources (specifically oil and gas). The paper also compares economic growth projections for a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) storylines. The per capita GDP growth is projected for more than 175 countries. Given the long-term nature of some of the major environmental challenges, including climate change, the time horizon for the projections is 2100. Finally, the paper investigates the influence of short-term growth rate estimates on the long-term levels of per capita income in various countries. It does so by comparing long-term projections based on short-term forecasts from 2010 with the projections based on the latest forecasts. In this way, the effects of the recent economic crisis, and uncertainty in short term developments, on longer term growth trends are highlighted.