Unveiling the reality of carbon reduction: Is the Paris Agreement turning the world green or just painting it green?

As global climate change becomes increasingly serious due to the continuous growth of CO2 emissions, the Paris Agreement has been adopted by most countries in the world. However, whether this global climate change agreement can effectively reduce CO2 emissions and contribute to achieving the goal of controlling global warming within 2 °C is still widely questioned. Therefore, this study uses staggered difference-in-difference (DID) to examine the impact of the Paris Agreement on CO2 emissions using historical data for 104 countries from 2010 to 2021, and implements shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to predict global CO2 emissions from 2020 to 2100. The results show that the Paris Agreement can effectively reduce CO2 emissions. However, predictions under the five SSPs suggest that current efforts cannot achieve the global carbon emission control targets. The results of this study provide insightful suggestions for the formulation and implementation of future global climate policies to avoid overly optimistic carbon reduction estimates, and contribute to policymakers in various countries realizing the necessity and potential of exploring effective carbon reduction measures.