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Long-Term Growth Scenarios

  • Åsa Johansson
  • Yvan Guillemette
  • Fabrice Murtin
  • David Turner
  • Giuseppe Nicoletti
  • Christine de la Maisonneuve
  • Philip Bagnoli
  • Guillaume Bousquet
  • Francesca Spinelli

This paper presents the results from a new model for projecting growth of OECD and major non-OECD economies over the next 50 years as well as imbalances that arise. A baseline scenario assuming gradual structural reform and fiscal consolidation to stabilise government-debt-to GDP ratios is compared with variant scenarios assuming deeper policy reforms. One main finding is that growth of the non-OECD G20 countries will continue to outpace OECD countries, but the difference will narrow substantially over coming decades. In parallel, the next 50 years will see major changes in the composition of the world economy. In the absence of ambitious policy changes, global imbalances will emerge which could undermine growth. However, ambitious fiscal consolidation efforts and deep structural reforms can both raise long-run living standards and reduce the risks of major disruptions to growth by mitigating global imbalances. Scénarios de croissance à long terme Cette étude présente les résultats d?un nouveau modèle de projection de la croissance économique des pays de l?OCDE et des pays majeurs hors-OCDE sur un horizon de 50 ans ainsi que des déséquilibres qui apparaissent. Un scénario de référence, qui comprend des réformes structurelles graduelles et un assainissement budgétaire suffisant pour stabiliser les ratios de dette/PIB, est comparé à des scénarios alternatifs qui incluent des réformes plus profondes des politiques publiques. Une des conclusions principales est que la croissance des pays du G20 non membres de l?OCDE continuera de dépasser celle des pays membres, mais la différence s?amenuisera au cours des prochaines décennies. Parallèlement, les 50 prochaines années verront des changements majeurs dans la composition de l?économie mondiale. En absence de refonte ambitieuse des politiques publiques, des déséquilibres mondiaux dangereux pour la croissance émergeront. Cependant, une rationalisation plus prononcée des finances publiques combinée à des réformes structurelles profondes pourrait à la fois faire augmenter les niveaux de vie et réduire les risques de déraillement majeur de la croissance en réduisant les déséquilibres mondiaux.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/5k4ddxpr2fmr-en
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Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 1000.

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Date of creation: 28 Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1000-en
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