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Fiscal Policy Reaction to the Cycle in the OECD: Pro- or Counter-cyclical?

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  • Balázs Egert

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

This paper analyses the reaction of fiscal policy to the cycle in OECD countries. The results suggest that while overall government balances were counter-cyclical in the past and more so in economic downturns than in upswings, discretionary fiscal policy was neutral on average. However, discretionary fiscal policy appears to react to the cycle in a non-linear fashion: fiscal policy in countries with high public debt and high government deficits tends to be pro-cyclical, while countries that have low public debt and that have surpluses are more likely to conduct a counter-cyclical fiscal policy. The paper also finds that asset prices have a significant impact on government balances.

Suggested Citation

  • Balázs Egert, 2012. "Fiscal Policy Reaction to the Cycle in the OECD: Pro- or Counter-cyclical?," Working Papers hal-04141091, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04141091
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04141091
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