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Temperature, climate change, and human conception rates: Evidence from Hungary

Author

Listed:
  • Tamás Hajdu

    (Centre for Economic and Regional Studies Sciences)

  • Gábor Hajdu

    (Institute for Sociology, Centre for Social Sciences)

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the relationship between temperature and human conception rates and project the impacts of climate change by the mid-twenty-first century. Using complete administrative data on 6.8 million pregnancies between 1980 and 2015 in Hungary, we show that exposure to hot temperatures reduces the conception rate in the first few weeks following the exposure, but a partial rebound is observed after that. Absent adaptation, climate change is projected to increase seasonal differences in conception rates, and a decline is expected in terms of annual conception rates. This latter decline is driven by a change in the number of induced abortions and spontaneous fetal losses. The overall number of live births is unaffected. However, some newborns may experience non-negligible consequences because of the altering in utero temperature exposure due to a shift in the timing of conception.

Suggested Citation

  • Tamás Hajdu & Gábor Hajdu, 2020. "Temperature, climate change, and human conception rates: Evidence from Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2017, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    • Handle: RePEc:has:discpr:2017
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Tamás Hajdu & Gábor Hajdu, 2019. "Ambient temperature and sexual activity: Evidence from time use surveys," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(12), pages 307-318.
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    12. Alan Barreca & Olivier Deschenes & Melanie Guldi, 2018. "Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1269-1293, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Risto Conte Keivabu & Marco Cozzani & Joshua Wilde, 2023. "Temperature and fertility: evidence from Spanish register data," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2023-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Hajdu, Tamás & Hajdu, Gábor, 2023. "Climate change and the mortality of the unborn," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    3. Jelnov, Pavel, 2021. "Sunset Long Shadows: Time, Crime, and Perception of Change," IZA Discussion Papers 14770, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Árpád Stump & Bálint Herczeg & Ágnes Szabó-Morvai, 2023. "The Effect of Air Pollution on Fertility Outcomes in Europe," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2310, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    conception rate; fertility; temperature; weather; climate change;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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