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The effect of ambient temperature shocks during conception and early pregnancy on later life outcomes

Author

Listed:
  • Joshua Wilde

    (USF - University of South Florida [Tampa])

  • Bénédicte Apouey

    (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris sciences et lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Toni Jung

    (AT&T - AT&T)

Abstract

A large body of research has recently shown that early life or in utero shocks, especially climatic shocks, may affect long-run human capital outcomes. Most of these effects are assumed to be biological – including poor nutrition during critical windows of fetal development, or through increased maternal stress. However, in addition to these biological effects, climatic conditions at the time of conception may also cause changes in parental behavior, not only affecting the mix of parents who conceive, but also the characteristics of the children once born. This paper explores whether increases in ambient temperature at the time of conception, while in utero, or after birth affect educational and health outcomes as adults. Using Census and Demographic and Health Survey data from sub-Saharan Africa, we show that individuals conceived during high temperatures have higher educational attainment and literacy. In addition, we find evidence of temperature effects at other times in utero, especially during the first trimester. We then explore the biological and behavioral mechanisms through which this effect may occur, including heat-induced changes in sexual behavior, differences in parental characteristics, and intensified fetal selection. We conclude that fetal selection is the most likely mechanism driving our result.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua Wilde & Bénédicte Apouey & Toni Jung, 2017. "The effect of ambient temperature shocks during conception and early pregnancy on later life outcomes," Post-Print halshs-01579660, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-01579660
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2017.05.003
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01579660
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    Cited by:

    1. Josephat J. Hongoli & Youjin Hahn, 2023. "Early life exposure to cold weather shocks and growth stunting: Evidence from Tanzania," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(12), pages 2855-2879, December.
    2. Xi Chen & Chih Ming Tan & Xiaobo Zhang & Xin Zhang, 2020. "The effects of prenatal exposure to temperature extremes on birth outcomes: the case of China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1263-1302, October.
    3. Kien Le & My Nguyen, 2021. "The Impacts of Temperature Shocks on Birth Weight in Vietnam," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 47(4), pages 1025-1047, December.
    4. Tamás Hajdu & Gábor Hajdu, 2022. "Temperature, climate change, and human conception rates: evidence from Hungary," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 35(4), pages 1751-1776, October.
    5. Karlsson, Martin & Ziebarth, Nicolas R., 2018. "Population health effects and health-related costs of extreme temperatures: Comprehensive evidence from Germany," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 93-117.
    6. Wilde, Joshua & Chen, Wei & Lohmann, Sophie, 2020. "COVID-19 and the Future of US Fertility: What Can We Learn from Google?," IZA Discussion Papers 13776, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    7. Bratti, Massimiliano & Frimpong, Prince Boakye & Russo, Simone, 2021. "Prenatal Exposure to Heat Waves and Child Health in Sub-saharan Africa," IZA Discussion Papers 14424, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Trinh, Trong-Anh & Appau, Samuelson & Awaworyi Churchill, Sefa & Farrell, Lisa, 2022. "Temperature shocks and gambling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    9. Premand, Patrick & Stoeffler, Quentin, 2022. "Cash transfers, climatic shocks and resilience in the Sahel," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    10. Joshua Wilde & B�n�dicte H. Apouey & Gabriel Picone & Joseph Coleman, 2017. "The Effect of Antimalarial Campaigns on Child Mortality and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa," Working Papers 0616, University of South Florida, Department of Economics.
    11. Wu, Wenjie & Yang, Zhe & Kim, Jun Hyung & Yue, Ai, 2023. "Effects of Early Childhood Climate on Cognitive Development and Home Environment," IZA Discussion Papers 16017, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Jaqueline Oliveira & Bruno Palialol & Paula Pereda, 2021. "Do temperature shocks affect non-agriculture wages in Brazil? Evidence from individual-level panel data," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2021_13, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    13. Tamás Hajdu & Gábor Hajdu, 2019. "Ambient temperature and sexual activity: Evidence from time use surveys," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 40(12), pages 307-318.
    14. S. Block & B. Haile & L. You & D. Headey, 2022. "Heat shocks, maize yields, and child height in Tanzania," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(1), pages 93-109, February.
    15. Piringer, Niklas & Vardanega, Gabrielle & Thiede, Brian C., 2022. "Climate Exposures and Household Dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa," SocArXiv nbwf6, Center for Open Science.
    16. Tamás Hajdu & Gábor Hajdu, 2020. "Temperature, climate change and birth weight: Evidence from Hungary," CERS-IE WORKING PAPERS 2032, Institute of Economics, Centre for Economic and Regional Studies.
    17. Norling, Johannes, 2020. "Education and employment following apartheid protests," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    18. Hajdu, Tamás & Hajdu, Gábor, 2023. "Climate change and the mortality of the unborn," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    19. Guimbeau, Amanda & Ji, Xinde James & Long, Zi & Menon, Nidhiya, 2023. "Ocean Salinity, Early-Life Health, and Adaptation," IZA Discussion Papers 16463, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Zhang, Zihan & Kim, Jun Hyung, 2023. "The Inheritance of Historical Trauma: Intergenerational Effects of Early-Life Exposure to Famine on Mental Health," IZA Discussion Papers 16385, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    21. Guimbeau, Amanda & Ji, Xinde & Menon, Nidhiya & Long, Zi, 2022. "An Extra Grain of Salt: The Effect of Salinity Exposure on Early Life Health Outcomes in Coastal Bangladesh," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322076, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    22. Brian C. Thiede & Sara Ronnkvist & Anna Armao & Katrina Burka, 2022. "Climate anomalies and birth rates in sub-Saharan Africa," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 171(1), pages 1-20, March.
    23. Hu, Zihan & Li, Teng, 2019. "Too hot to handle: The effects of high temperatures during pregnancy on adult welfare outcomes," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 236-253.
    24. Alan Barreca & Olivier Deschenes & Melanie Guldi, 2018. "Maybe Next Month? Temperature Shocks and Dynamic Adjustments in Birth Rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 55(4), pages 1269-1293, August.
    25. Grace, Kathryn & Billingsley, Sunnee & Van Riper, David, 2020. "Building an interdisciplinary framework to advance conceptual and technical aspects of population-environment research focused on women's and children's health," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 250(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Temperature; Conception; Fetal Origins; Fertility; Human Capital;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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