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The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?

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  • Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia
  • Mr. Mico Mrkaic
  • Natalija Novta
  • Evgenia Pugacheva
  • Petia Topalova

Abstract

Global temperatures have increased at an unprecedented pace in the past 40 years. This paper finds that increases in temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects, with adverse consequences concentrated in countries with hot climates, such as most low-income countries. In these countries, a rise in temperature lowers per capita output, in both the short and medium term, through a wide array of channels: reduced agricultural output, suppressed productivity of workers exposed to heat, slower investment, and poorer health. In an unmitigated climate change scenario, and under very conservative assumptions, model simulations suggest the projected rise in temperature would imply a loss of around 9 percent of output for a representative low-income country by 2100.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia & Mr. Mico Mrkaic & Natalija Novta & Evgenia Pugacheva & Petia Topalova, 2018. "The Effects of Weather Shocks on Economic Activity: What are the Channels of Impact?," IMF Working Papers 2018/144, International Monetary Fund.
  • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/144
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; economic activity; dependent variable; Climate change; Environoment and growth; Climate policy; temperature increase; developing country; temperature shock; productivity effect; infant mortality; Public expenditure review; Emerging and frontier financial markets; Productivity; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q58 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Government Policy

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